Here's my thought process:
1) Based on extrapolation from the history of my first pond, which has basically the same soils (better, if anything, on #2), same watershed type (hayfield/pasture), very close watershed:pond ratio (#1 is 11 acres:0.9 acres, #2 is 5 acres:0.45 acres), and the amazingly similar insolation and evaporation factors that occur from being located all of 100 yds away, in an average year I expect the pond to be full going into Winter and to get less than a foot of ice thickness. So ice hopefully wont be a problem if the top of the BG condo is a foot or more below fullpool.
2) I expect to lose 6"-8" to evaporation in the hypothetical average year. So the condo should stay submerged most of the time.
I would have been happy with anything from 1' to 2', it just happened to come out to about 1' (I think; we'll see when she actually fills up). There is lots of other structure nearby (and a little more to come, weather this Fall permitting) which is farther from the surface, in case that works out better for the fish.