Good points although a lot would depend on the airflow in and around the bio media.
I don't yet have any data on any of the relevant temperatures yet but I agree 5F seems like a good WAG. Dew point is likely quite low here so I am hopeful.

I don't yet have aeration installed but expect to do so soon. The air lift pumps inject quite a lot of air in the water as it gets pumped to the biofilter/bog. I am running two HiBlow 80-HP pumps. One pump for each airlift and then adjusting the airflow down to optimize the pump performance, minimize the excess air burping and splashing and dedicating the remainder for a small aeration source.

However, I have been doing a little more internet digging. There are several pages highlighting the use of spray jets, spray bars and fountains for cooling pools. In summary I am sure it's possible but I get the impression it might some trial and error.