Here's what I expect to happen:
While it's important how cold it gets, the most important factor to killing fish is how fast it gets there. When southern ponds were in the low 50's midweek last week, and drop to 35 in a few days, especially shallow ponds, expect coppernose bluegills and Florida bass to die. Even today, here at LL,2, the Swimming Pond still isn't frozen. We've been below freezing now since Wednesday, and that pond is still 80% open. It's 11 degrees and snowing here, on the way to single digits. Not supposed to be above freezing again until Thursday. For us, that's a long time.
I expect threadfin shad to die in all lakes as far south as San Antonio...even the biggest public lakes except power plant lakes. In private waters, I expect to see some of the biggest Florida bass die due to how cold it is getting...how fast. I expect to see coppernose bluegills die as well. When they get really cold, fast, they'll sink to the bottom, lay on their sides and slow down so much they quit breathing. Then, they die.
I also expect to see gizzard shad die in lakes where they are overcrowded, in shallow, muddy areas. All the rest of the fish should hunker down and be fine. Catfish will be okay, F1 bass, native bluegills, and native species will be fine. As soon as this event passes, I'd go take a look at your ponds and see what you can see.
We're right next to Lake Texoma, 90,000 acre lake with substantial depths. Threadfins will all die in that lake as well. Agencies need to be prepared to restock them next spring, if they can find them.
For our environment, this is about as harsh as it can get.
