Current outlook is for Mexico.
data from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Martinique showed the small but well-defined center of Ernesto moved westward just south of or over St. Lucia early this morning. Based on the aircraft and surface observations...the initial intensity is set at 45 knots. These winds are confined to a small area north of the center. Fast-moving tropical cyclones typically do not strengthen much and in fact...latest satellite images indicate little change in the structure of the cyclone.
Ernesto is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 18 knots
embedded within a fast easterly flow south of the subtropical
ridge. This steering pattern should keep the cyclone on a general
westward track for the next 2 to 3 days. By the time Ernesto
reaches the western Caribbean...the steering flow is expected to
weaken and Ernesto is forecast to slow down. The combination of low
shear and high upper-ocean heat content in the western Caribbean
Sea would favor some intensification...and Ernesto is forecast to
become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The official
forecast follows the intensity consensus...but one should note that
both the SHIPS and lgem intensity models are forecasting a stronger
hurricane.
Most of the track guidance is in pretty good agreement that Ernesto
will be racing westward across the eastern and central Caribbean
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that...track models diverge
considerably and some models keep Ernesto on a more westward
track...while another group turn the cyclone more to the
northwest...depending upon how the models depict the strength of
ridge to the north. Nevertheless...all indications are that Ernesto
will be moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days.
Read more at
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201205.disc.html#duwceeiMv0ROqLw6.99
.gif)
