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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520325 05/02/20 05:26 AM
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Thanks Zep, I found some at a truck stop of all places.


It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Sunil #520327 05/02/20 05:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Sunil
In weeks past, I've felt this entire thing has been a giant feces sandwich of which we'd all have to take a bite.
"The more bread you have, the less ... you have to eat."


"Live like you'll die tomorrow, but manage your grass like you'll live forever."
-S. M. Stirling
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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
DrLuke #520343 05/02/20 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by DrLuke
+100 on what Canyon said. COVID19 is here to stay. Living life is about making choices and taking risks. There's been sufficient testing to tell us that COVID19 is wide spread, and the mortality rate is very low (around 0.5% currently). It definitely sucks if the one who dies is our own family or friend. I pray that you & yours (the PB family) come through safe and sound. But no vaccine is coming. No wildly effective medications are likely either. But our immune systems will adapt, and life will go on. We might as well venture out and wet a line.


This is a great idea but it will not work with this virus. The problem is the only immunity we have to this is called our active immunity. Our passive immunity doesn't even recognize this virus. This means there is very little chance the virus will ever have a vaccine, and very little chance your immunity will last more then 6 months.

This is a SARs 2.0 and there is no vaccine for SARs or MERs. Here in Canada things are shut down too and now extended to May 31st. Events are being canceled out to August 30th now. It is now understood this virus doesn't have legs and is only transmitted by human to human contact. Limiting this is the only way we are going to get back to our lives if we ever do.

The only hard data you can stick with is the recovered numbers and the death ratio. These are the only known factors that exist. The death rate is in the 25 to 20% and is not, no where near 2% and not to be taken lightly.

Everyone please stay home stay safe and keep this virus from traveling.


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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
DonoBBD #520351 05/02/20 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by DonoBBD
The death rate is in the 25 to 20% and is not, no where near 2% and not to be taken lightly.

Uh?
The US has 330 million population
There have been less than 70,000 US COVID deaths thus far.

If COVID death rate was really in the 25% range there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone. I don't know of any experts now predicting several hundred thousand deaths in the US.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Fishing has never been about the fish....

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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520359 05/02/20 09:30 PM
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" Limiting this is the only way we are going to get back to our lives if we ever do."

DonoBBD, "...if we ever do?"

We'll get back, Brother!!


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520395 05/03/20 08:20 AM
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Here in Harrison Co Texas there have been 120 confirmed cases with 14 deaths. That is more than 10% death rates I think Harrison co has the highest numbers when comparing to other E. Texas counties. Most likely due to it being so close to Shreveport La. where virus numbers are high. Mata graw kick Louisiana's butt spreading the disease. I know these numbers of cases may be off due to lack of testing but confirmed verses death rate is higher than 2%.. Any other numbers are just guesses educated or not. And the death numbers are still rising. I expect to see a jump in the next 30 days because of things opening up. And I think it will be a bigger jump than expected. Another thing is a lot of transmission is passed along to family. My 24 yr old grandson said to me the other day "He has never seen anything like this" I told him I was 67 and I have never seen anything like this either. The word is Pandemic. None of us have seen this before. Stay safe!

Last edited by TGW1; 05/03/20 08:26 AM.

Do not judge me by the politicians in my City, State or Federal Government.


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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520429 05/03/20 07:50 PM
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"Here in Harrison Co Texas there have been 120 confirmed cases with 14 deaths. That is more than 10% death rates ..."

TGW, can you clarify on that, please?

I'm feeling that the (120) is not the denominator in the 'death rate' calculation.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Sunil #520433 05/03/20 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Sunil
"Here in Harrison Co Texas there have been 120 confirmed cases with 14 deaths. That is more than 10% death rates ..."

TGW, can you clarify on that, please?

I'm feeling that the (120) is not the denominator in the 'death rate' calculation.

That would be the case-fatality rate, the number of deaths per people who test positive for the virus. If you only test the sickest people, this rate will go up.

Last edited by Bocomo; 05/03/20 10:33 PM.
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520434 05/03/20 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Zep
If COVID death rate was really in the 25% range there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone. I don't know of any experts now predicting several hundred thousand deaths in the US.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


The NHME at U Wash is predicting ~72,000 deaths by August. However, this model doesn't include states reopening.

The Wharton School of Business puts the upper bound at 300,000 deaths by the end of June if states reopen. There is an interactive graphic where you can see the impact of various policies on state economies and projected deaths: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/5/1/coronavirus-reopening-simulator

Last edited by Bocomo; 05/03/20 10:48 PM.
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520439 05/04/20 07:05 AM
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Sunil, I agree that 120 cases is most likely not a good number when it comes to the possibility of many more cases than the 120 counted. But the 120 is the number reported in the county a couple of days ago. 14 deaths was also reported at that time. Those numbers show more than a 10% death rate like I reported. Any other numbers falls into what I call a SWAG. Scientific Wild Ass Guess!

Bocomo, case fatality rate might be a realistic calculation, but I just reported here the numbers of deaths verses confirmed cases in Harrison Co.

I had to make a trip into Marshal Texas yesterday for fuel and vehicle traffic was way up from just a week ago. Based on what I saw I believe the confirmed cases are going way up in the next 30 days. And that concerns me a lot.

I understand economics when it comes to business because I ran my own for 34 years. So how is it all going to work out when it comes to business, and family economics and this Pandimic?
I think China spread it on purpose after they new what they had. All they really had to do is just ask for help, but they chose a different path. I also think they are here to steal our knowledge of things. My example would be when I went to LSU Agg for testing my water in the pond a couple of years ago. After the test I met with LSU Rep and discovered he was from China and as we discussed such things as biological/ Microbial water treatments I found out I knew more than he did when we discussed Shreveport's water supply Cross Lake and excess nutrients with possible treatment. I found it at that time to be unusual that I knew more than a so called expert.

Last edited by TGW1; 05/04/20 07:28 AM.

Do not judge me by the politicians in my City, State or Federal Government.


Tracy
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Bocomo #520452 05/04/20 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Bocomo
The Wharton School of Business puts the upper bound at 300,000 deaths by the end of June if states reopen.

Bocomo so I guess I wasn't really considering how many "experts" are producing "models" out there...of course so many models/projections have already been wrong.....and many models/projections are based on unknown information and assumptions.....Obviously many real-world variables can cause model assumptions to be inaccurate and affect the true outcome.

But yes the models range the whole gamut and many models state "under certain circumstances" X "could" happen....so pick a number and you can probably find that "model".

I'm not sure there are many like Wharton claiming under certain scenarios that by the end of June there "could be" 300,000 US Deaths from COVID.

Even Gu’s model projects that U.S. Covid-19 deaths by early August could be as low as 88,217 and as high as 293,381, with a most likely toll of 150,760.

It appears Wharton is greatly increasing even Gu's projections for end of June....and Gu is known as pushing the upper possible limits.

If there are 300,000 US deaths from COVID by the end of June 2020 Bocomo I will buy you a new boat.

And neither of those things are going to happen.


Fishing has never been about the fish....

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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520455 05/04/20 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Zep
Originally Posted by Bocomo
The Wharton School of Business puts the upper bound at 300,000 deaths by the end of June if states reopen.

Bocomo so I guess I wasn't really considering how many "experts" are producing "models" out there...of course so many models/projections have already been wrong.....and many models/projections are based on unknown information and assumptions.....Obviously many real-world variables can cause model assumptions to be inaccurate and affect the true outcome.

But yes the models range the whole gamut and many models state "under certain circumstances" X "could" happen....so pick a number and you can probably find that "model".

I'm not sure there are many like Wharton claiming under certain scenarios that by the end of June there "could be" 300,000 US Deaths from COVID.

Even Gu’s model projects that U.S. Covid-19 deaths by early August could be as low as 88,217 and as high as 293,381, with a most likely toll of 150,760.

It appears Wharton is greatly increasing even Gu's projections for end of June....and Gu is known as pushing the upper possible limits.

If there are 300,000 US deaths from COVID by the end of June 2020 Bocomo I will buy you a new boat.

And neither of those things are going to happen.


All models are bad. Some are worse than others.

Wharton's setup is less of a prediction than a simulation in the sense that you can change the parameters and re-run it to see the effects. The upper bound they report is if you relax all the virus restrictions for all states immediately which is not going to happen. The most interesting part of the model is their prediction of how stay-at-home vs. social distancing vs. going back to "normal" affects the economy.

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520464 05/04/20 12:14 PM
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I'm late to this conversation and admit I have NOT read the other pages in it. However, I am reminded of the 3 types of lies: 1) lies; 2) damn lies; and 3) STATISTICS!

But by any measure, Covid-19 is not a good thing. As a WAG 150,000 (or higher) sounds reasonable.

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Bocomo #520471 05/04/20 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Bocomo
All models are bad. Some are worse than others
Yes agreed...models are what they are....so many variables....they are trying to gauge things like "level of shutdown"..."level of re-open".

They also really can not predict how new treatments literally coming into actual protocols weekly will turn out.

This headline yesterday from USA Today.......how can a model know how this and many others turn out?

They are making predictions/simulations and they have no idea how helpful some of these may be and to what degree of helpfulness?


Coronavirus treatment drug remdesivir to arrive in hospitals this week, Gilead CEO says

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...esivir-coming-hospitals-week/3074612001/


Fishing has never been about the fish....

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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520489 05/04/20 07:45 PM
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My Grandson Trevor got out of the hospital today. He spent 3 days due to 104+ temp. They didnt come up with an identification of what he had but he’s glad to be home.

It could also be from a tick bite. He and another guy caught, I think, 13 pigs in a trap on my place. They were loaded with ticks and they butchered them. This was about a week ago. He doesn’t recall getting tick bit but.... I’ll dang sure spray down when I’m there. I have no shortage of pigs. My wife saw a bunch of about 50, including young ones, crossing an area over the weekend. I brought a tick home on me that I hadn’t noticed.

Last edited by Dave Davidson1; 05/04/20 07:46 PM.

It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520492 05/04/20 08:05 PM
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Guv, I thought you said the grandson got diagnosed with the COVID?

No?


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520496 05/04/20 08:22 PM
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Because the of shutdown I am being furloughed for two weeks. I am going to use the time off and the stimulus check to treat my muddy pond with alum. Then I need to do an engine swap on an old riding mower I keep out by the pond. Then need to get corn planted in my deer plot. LOTS to do.

Also my step-dad just passed away (not Covid) and thus will have a major project of cleaning out his duplex.


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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520498 05/04/20 08:54 PM
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FWIW, here in NY a random sampling of people were tested, about 6000, to see what the antibody positive count was. To everyone's surprise, it was far higher than expected. In the city proper, almost 1 in 4 people had it. Out here, 1 in 25-ish. This was three weeks ago now, so the numbers are higher by now.

What did we learn? The actual death rate is <1%, closer to 0.5%. The majority of people never knew they had it. Only the sickest get tested normally, which over-inflates the death rate. We are basing a lot of decisions on crap data.

What else have I learned today?
1. Scientists have confirmed you can only get it once. No significant mutations (yet) that allow re-infection. It turns out the tests for active infections don't differentiate between DNA of a dead virus (post infection) and live. There were false positives in already infected but recovered people.
2. It is airborne. People can get it without contact, just not as easily. It doesn't primarily infect that way, but can and does.
3. Re-opening soon is going to be necessary, whether we like it or not. It will be the lesser of two evils if people start to get rebellious and desperate.
4. You are going to get it. Face it. Everyone will but roughly 20% of the population. Lucky people or those we need to isolate until a vaccine is ready. All we are doing is stretching out the inevitable.
5. A vaccine is possible, but unlikely. Don't count on it being available before the problem solves itself.
6. Best bet is to isolate the vulnerable as much as humanly possible. This doesn't mean everyone at the detriment of social stability.
7. A second wave is sure to happen if we clamp down this hard and then let up. It HAS to, there simply is that much "fertile ground" for it to work with. Summer may be the best time to let it go due to:
8. A healthy immune system is key. Get your vitamin D, natural and supplements, get out, get exercise, live life. Sitting inside locked up watching TV and drinking too much is counter-productive.

What I am still annoyed about is upstate is still locked down with NYC problems. Barely an issue now in my area, and now set at least to the end of May. Re-opening wont occur until the impossible happens: Containment, more or less. Its going to get ugly soon as unemployment is not coming through for many.

In the meantime, I am getting a lot of yard work done, and started the pain in the butt process of raking out the chara to get ready for SoilFloc. Still hoping my wedding ring comes up with the weeds.

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Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520506 05/05/20 04:57 AM
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All this is like a bad science fiction movie.

Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520507 05/05/20 05:11 AM
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Sunil, they never came up with anything concrete on just why he was so ill. They found infection around and surrounding his heart. What happened to come up with temp of over 104? He doesn’t remember a tick bite but the Doc said symptoms mirrored it and the hogs they caught/butchered were loaded with them.

Everything said the virus except one Doc said it looked more like tick fever. One Doc said they don’t have a real handle on what the virus is and how to whip it. He is out of the hospital and glad of it.

I’ll be spraying down when I go there


It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520512 05/05/20 05:37 AM
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Dave, it's good to hear he is doing better.


Do not judge me by the politicians in my City, State or Federal Government.


Tracy
Re: Corona-virus & Our Ponds
Zep #520520 05/05/20 06:24 AM
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Guv, thanks. One thing the young man does not want is Lymes Disease, so hopefully the were prepared for that.


Great report, squid.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

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