Pond Boss Forums Thread Like Summary - Fish food hit by supply chain, sorta

I was going to buy a bag of Optimal 'Bass' pellets, but found they were out of stock and the reason given is equipment repairs coming November. That was a little while ago. Now, I also want a bag of the "Bass Throw" pellets...but now that too is out of stock, and awaiting repairs in November. Meanwhile, I'll be working down the Purina AquaMax and Optimal Bluegill.

Most people think inflation is rising prices. Actually, it is the falling value of the dollar as too much money chases too few goods. A rerun for those who remember the stagflationary 1970s.

I'm in agreement. But unless a person is getting more interest on their money than the inflation ... it just seems like higher prices. For some reason, interest rates appear disproportionately low for the inflation. The chart on the fertilizer page could describe the chart of our home prices since COVID here in DFW. I feel sorry for the renters. Probably the rise in the stock market is a similar story. The dividends don't seem to have kept pace with stock prices. Inflation sux.

Love Texas Hill Country! And I get you on the investment needed to make a pond reach full potential. Kinda like a yacht, a pond is a hole in the ground into which you pour money. And time. And energy.

But the return on investment! Pond brings in deer, eagles, frogs, kingfishers, Canada geese, wood ducks, so much more. We like sitting on the deck overlooking the water, sipping coffee, in the cool of the morning. Or watching the feeders go off and fish go nuts any time of day. Water is special.

Expect Feed prices to be going higher ... see below

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/w...0/06/fertilizer-price-gains-losing-steam

Years ago when natgas was hitting $20 spot price and the futures prices had similarly risen, one or more ammonia producers in Louisiana sold off their gas futures, shut down the plant, and gave everyone three months paid vacation. When they came back, natgas was back to about $4 and all was good, especially the seller's market for ammonia.

You bring up some good points Danny. The story about the ammonia producers is a good one. The ammonia producers basically said "Like heck we're going to make ammonia from $20 gas and "try to" peddle to farmers for a profit." Likewise the farmers would have responded in similar fashion but fortunately didn't have to.

Perhaps the challenge for determining where we will be next year (and years away) is understanding what proportion of price changes are devaluation of the dollar and what portion is market driven (supply/demand ... greed/fear). The inflation stays but the market changes are variable.

Fertilizer costs, diesel fuel costs, herbicide costs. All inputs the farmers have to look at. If they can't turn even a small profit on what they plant, what is the sense of planting? Equipment operation costs, parts for the equipment, etc., etc. all comes into play.

It all depends on where in the USA you are too, for fuel/gas prices. Here in Indiana, I've seen $3.60/gal gas and $4.05/gal diesel. Today in Arkansas and Missouri I saw gas for $2.99/gal and diesel for $3.29/gal. A friend in Oklahoma said gas is $2.89, diesel is $2.89 and if you buy at the co-op diesel is $2.75.

Delivering fish getting 10-12 mpg @ $4/gallon is a lot different than delivering fish at $2.99/gal. Especially when you have to figure in a 1,500 mile round trip just to pick up the fish before you start deliveries.

Well I don't think the price of fertilizer has anything to do with the price you pay for feed. The increase in the price of fertilizers comes out of the farmers pocket, not the consumers. The share of the cost that the farmer get's out of a bag of feed is less than 10%. So 100% increase in the price of grain would only change the price you pay for feed by an additional 10 %. With grain up only 15 to 20 % that ends up only being less than $1 a bag. the real cost of feed is shipping, bagging and corporates prophet. Companies use the cost of grain as an excuse to raise prices because everyone believes it is the reason, but it is just an excuse to make more money for the corporations. Sorry for my rant.

In California, some places charge over $6/gallon. Of course, that goes along with average house price $800,000. Part of the supply chain woes are due to new regs on trucks & prohibitions on independent owner/operators to make unions happy.

No wonder people & businesses are fleeing. Sadly, when they sell their Cali homes & buy in Montana, Nevada, Texas, etc, they inflate real estate prices there as well. I have friends who just moved from decaying Illinois to Texas but couldn't find a place they could afford in Austin. Every winning bid was tens of thousands higher than the ask price!

Our neighbor just cleared $700K ($850K sales price, $750K asking) here in northwest Bexar county. That's tempting, but....we can't give up our views, the pets can't give up the views nor the room to run (2+ acres is all...how would they adjust?), and we have this new pond, only four years old that's coming into its own ecosystem, that cost a bundle. There is land available as ranchers retire and sell out to developers...and the Hill Country is now beautiful green and the rivers flowing after some years of wetter weather...a great time to sell and demand is great...lots of people have money and want that retirement home on five to twenty acres.

+ 1 ! I made a couple changes to add emphasis and my recent experience.