There is a lot going on in your pond, obviously. Just to share some thoughts ...

There has been absolutely no mention of good populations of YOY. Without good overwinter survival of these sizes of forage, there will not be adequate forage for preferred sizes of LMB (> 15"). You need a really good census of the fish populations ... so that it can be understood what is there and also need to be able to make reliable estimates of the biomass that the lake is supporting. (I am going to guess in the neighborhood of 500 - 700 lbs to the acre given its age ... possibly more). The problem is not food. It's the populations and how they are interacting to produce consumable forage and the competition for this consumable forage. While we would say the pond is "out of balance" ... the truth is ... the pond has a unique balance. All the working parts are balanced with the foods the pond is producing and the population structure reflects the balance. Is it the best balance? No, you would like to improve growth rates and the ultimate sizes of the LMB. That circumstance, also has its own unique balance (balanced with growth and standing weight as it relates to the production of ... and maintenance of consumable forage). To achieve that balance requires having the right number and sizes of LMB AND the right biomass of brood forage. The biomass of brood forage should be restricted enough so that the production potential remaining for consumable forage is sufficient to support the goaled biomass of LMB. The population of LMB should be restricted enough so that average weight of LMB is about 1/2 the weight of the goaled ultimate weight. That's a unique balance but only one of 1000's of possible balances that can happen naturally without your intervention. Your place in this, to achieve goals, is to manage biomass and populations for the unique balance that will accomplish the desired goals. It's a lot of work ... which is why I suggested killing it out and starting over as the best option.

Things that are not going to work to find that balance are:

Supplementing BG
Adding feed to boost the pond's already robust fertility.
Supplementing forage without removing brood forage.
Adding structure and habitat
Sequestering nutrients
Anything else other than seines that would be a glorious waste of money. (the problem is entirely related to the balance of LMB and the production of consumable prey)

To be sure, its not that those other things don't boost carrying capacity or even accomplish some of the things they are claimed to do ... it's just that they are not the answer to population and biomass imbalances. They will NEVER fix that type of problem. Only adjusting biomass and populations can fix biomass and population imbalances. These things will work:

Removing Bullheads
Removing too large to consume GSH
Removing all but a select number of LMB >12" in length

To work best, you need to remove the right number of LMB, all the bullheads that can be removed, and enough too large to consume GSH so that YOY going into winter have a biomass no less than 2 times the biomass of targeted LMB biomass. If the pond had no GSH, I would have had BG in place of the GSH but you seem to have representation of GSH nearly 30 fold the BG per the cast net survey. I wouldn't put any effort into controling BG numbers given that GSH is substantially dominant forage species in the pond.

The density of LMB in the pond can be estimated from the catch rate. At 2.5 LMB/hour, I estimate 77 LMB/acre. This is too many to have great growth into preferred length (>15"). If the pond has developed less vulnerability to angling since it's 1980's era restoration, then the density of LMB could be underestimated. The rate used for the population estimate is from a parent population of a study that investigated the heritable trait of vulnerability to angling. When it comes to LMB, one needs to have positive ID and marking of the population that is reserved for growth. You want to limit the population > 12" to only these fish and any fish > 12" that is not marked should be removed so as to not compete with them.

Forage locking is a gradual thing and it happens in all ponds to varying degrees ... it is a spectrum. It's a natural thing for forage fish to grow to weights that are either not consumable or that are difficult to consume. As the biomass of these large forage fish grow ... there is less production of consumable forage due to cannibalism and competition. Lowering the biomass of brood forage reduces cannibalism and competition increasing the consumable forage available to predators like LMB. The key is the right balance of brood, consumable forage, and LMB. You haven't described the population structure of the GSH ... but the description of the fishing and density of the LMB tell the story. There are abundant GSH that are larger than 4.5" and few GSH in the 2"-4" range. How do I know that? Because if you had an abundance of 2"-4" GSH ... enough that they could supply all the growth need of 13" fish they would be growing faster and have high RW. If the GSH are an average length of 6" ... That is JUST PERFECT for 24" 9LB LMB. But that's the problem. If you had 9 LB LMB, they would not be so numerous (because BIG LMB would be thinning these sizes down). 13" LMB are not growing to 9 LBS because 6" average length forage is just too dang big. They NEED 2"-4" forage and they are removing most of this size forage just to maintain their weight and grow slowly.

So you have my two cents. If you can start over, it will be easy for a 2 to 3 years and fishing good for a minimum of 3 to 5 years. But somewhere in that 3 to 5 year time frame you will be forced to manage populations and biomass or you will lose the big fish and return to the state the BOW is currently in. I'd argue that the current state isn't all that bad, 2.5 LMB/hr is a good catch rate (needs to be lowered to grow bigger fish) and 77 LMB/acre is a population that you can manage down. The estimated weight of LMB is around 61 lbs/acre if the recent trip is reflective of the population. the pond could support a greater standing weight of LMB if you reduced brood forage biomass (which would increase the biomass produced of consumable forage). I think you have something to work with if a plan can be organized that is consistently employed by all that are party to the pond.


It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so - Will Rogers