Nice to see that you are getting samples of LMB and that your population of marked LMB is growing.
Your population numbers are modestly less than my initial estimate as you have continued to acquire samples. I would only mention that releasing marked fish will sometimes mean that recaptures are going to be counted more than once ... this would scew your population estimate down. Personally, I wouldn't mark any more fish and I wouldn't try to adjust the population estimate with new data. Hopefully, you have already moved past that phase. I think you have done a great job of marking and getting a handle on your population. The results suggest you have a modest standing weight of fish in your pond. So the good news is, working with native fertility, your job of culling will be easier than I, esshup, and others previously thought. You need a smaller, contingent of LMB too to control panfish recruitment. We are still in the process of discovery of just how populous your LMB are.
I would continue to cull in earnest any unmarked panfish you catch ... plus any GSF you catch whether marked or not. Personally, I would try to cull a minimum of 50% of your estimated populations of PKS and YP. If you can do this by ice up ... KUDOS. I base this on the PKS ... IMHO ... having the potential to gain .15 lbs annually. The YP probably have potential for more gain. Keep this in mind. All things being equal, the reduced populations can fill the carry in 1 season so long as they have the potential to gain it back in one season. A population reduced by 50% has the ability to regain the carry capacity in 1 year if they can double in weight. Presently your sampled PKS average .1475 lbs. I definitely think you can take 1/2 of them. The growth you experience next year, however, will probably be less than .15 lbs. Why? Because some of their potential for growth will be competed for by increased production of YOY. You should see evidence of increased YOY abundance next growing season. These will be feeding your LMB and you should see remarkable improvement of LMB condition and growth next year if you meet your panfish culling goal.
The result of the seine survey supports my original suspicion of low production of YOY. In fact, the results are void of YOY. So predation of YOY seems sufficient to moderate recruitment. Conventional wisdom may suggest that you have too many LMB. Indeed, you may have too many LMB (this is by no means certain), but if over representation of LMB were the only problem ... wouldn't there be no problem with panfish growth and condition? The seine survey in combination with your population stats suggest the panfish populations are too numerous and they have been underexploited. They've taken too much of your ponds carry. The combination of cannibalism and reduced carry for YOY has impacted YOY production ... and this ... is reflected in the growth and condition of your LMB. There appears to have been enough YOY production to have maintained your current population structure (modest thin relatively slow growing panfish and very slow growing LMB). Next fall, if all goes well, you should have more representation of LMB in the 11" to 12" lengths, a few YOY in your seines, and substantially increased weights for your panfish. (If you were trying to grow trophy LMB, you would need substantial representation of YOY panfish in your seines meaning they should be significantly more numerous than intermediate panfish)
Right now, focus on your culling of unmarked panfish. Were this my pond, I would mark some fish uniquely of each species. When recaptured, they provide information about individual growth ... and as group of data ... how your populations are doing growth-wise. An easy method for ID is to use binary numbers. Clip the top third of dorsal spines to represent the number associated with that fish. You get N^2 - 1 unique numbers where N is the number of dorsal spines. A paper hole punch can perform this task but you might need to remove that central guide thing to ease the procedure. In particular, I would like to see the LMB growth monitored.
Anyways, thank you for efforts and sharing your data with the community. Special thanks from me as your journey has been very enjoyable to follow.
