Yes, your fish is potentially tracking. We don't have a reference from the past to compare it to. If you look at samples near the lower bound. Any one of those fish could be the fish you caught yesterday.
Since posting that above, I have resolved the problems with the model that I mentioned above. In so doing, I reduced the model to first principles that can be applied to any fish of any age or size. The model is a maximum average and for LMB (which are sexually dimorphic), it more formally applies to females. In the first year, males and females grow similarly so males can be included then. After reaching 12", Males will tend to underperform the model growth ... typically. After the model reformulation, there is a difference between the predicted average weight on 4/1/2025. On 4/1/25 the new model predicts and average weight of 1.00 lbs (compare that to the old model at 1.125 lbs)
It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so - Will Rogers
