FishinRod, having grown up with gizzard shad I'm pretty familiar with them and their sign. Up until this point I'd never seen anything in the ponds that I fish that indicate them. I've seen the small splashing that you describe my whole life and it doesn't match what I see when I'm on a place that has gizzard shad. Not saying you're wrong, just saying that a lifetime of fishing south central KS ponds and watersheds haven't produced the same shad sign that fishing the Arkansas river, the Walnut, and reservoirs has produced.
Our watershed froze over last winter, as well as what was left of the creek that feeds it, and the small ponds upstream. Everything was low or dry due to drought. I'm not seeing conditions that I think threadfin could survive in.
I've watched the video posted on the other thread several times and keep coming up with gizzard shad. If it wasn't for a huge amount of respect for ewest and his opinion I wouldn't be questioning myself on the id.