Just a thought....Just because the water on top drops to 39 degrees, it does not mean it will sink to the bottom. As it begins to drop it will encounter "warmer" water that will transfer heat to bring the temperature up before it ever reaches bottom. IMHO it takes a significant event, like a heavy cold rain, to create a cold water volume significant enough to cause a rapid turnover (possible fish kill). I suspect most turnovers occur slowly in the absence of a significant event. The deeper the pond is, the more "warm" water buffer there is between that 39 degree water on top and the bottom and the more significant the cold water event needs to be to cause a rapid turnover.
...Just my 1 cent
Last edited by Bill Cody; 11/30/19 10:27 PM. Reason: bold words