I am sensing mixed data. You say that there is a shortage of 3-5 in BG but yet the ESS showed good numbers and condition on all BG sizes. The fact that you are seeing 10 to 16 in. LMB in poor condition and few 3-5 in BG ,is a consistent result, but is inconsistent with the ESS. ESS is only a tool and sample a small % of the population. In some cases they miss sample due to conditions. For example if the crappie have pulled offshore and are deep the survey might miss them entirely. In other cases the data are misinterpreted. I am not saying that is the case just pointing out possibilities. Low LMB recruitment is consistent with very high numbers of 2-5 inch BG and is not common but happens. You could have had a couple of year class failures for LMB which can unbalance a population. If it has been 10 yrs plus since the LMB stocking you may be reaching terminal lifespan on those fish. A seine survey would provide helpful data on status and visual confirmation of LMB fry schools would be helpful.