Pond Boss Forums GENERAL QUESTIONS Pond Boss Poor weather forecasting

I have not seen much improvement in several years or more. The "future radar" is almost useless. Sometimes an 80% chance of rain is given two days ahead, and it drops to 10% the next day.

I was just talking to a buddy about this over the weekend....I feel like we're just about as likely to pull off an accurate 24 hour prediction by looking at a 1980 edition of the Farmer's Almanac or a simple wild a$$ guess as watching any of the modern weather forecasts.

Weather forecasting is the only trade that is not held accountable.....

And being a politician. Sorry had to go there!

Weather info is getting much better. Just because we know more does not mean we understand or know what to do with the info and surely forecasts are lacking. The further out they go the less accurate they are. Much over a few hours and the reliability greatly decreases.

The accuracy of weather forecasts also depends on location. They are pretty good in my area. Not much topography to goof things up.

Lots of topography in my area, but only smaller hills ranging from 300 up to 1200 feet or so above the valleys. Doesn't seem high enough to influence thunderstorms.

It was required to get my pilot license I use five different resources on weather before my flight plan. When getting your pilot license it seemed to me, most of it was about weather and how to read weather maps and weather reports and after getting the license I can see why it was required. Don't trust others for weather it was trust yourself !
But the one resource I liked was to go outside and look at the weather I bet highflyer can tell of some weather stories.

Tracy

The cap over DFW seems to kill most of rain that comes in from the west. We rarely count on that rain to make it here.

I would have to agree with RAH, it depends on location. As a part time farmer in Indiana I am sometimes amazed at how well the NWS does predicting rain and temp. I do realize that if there is a chance of rain in my area I personally may not get it on my farm but typically somewhere close by does. It seems to me that I have seen a steady improvement over the last several years.

That is my opinion too Gary. I am even surprised at myself on how much I depend on the weather forecast. I have more than once went on the motorcycle to lunch in town because the higher probability of rain shown on the forecast was not to show up till 2 pm.

Course I have gotten wet more than once too!

But in general, I think the accuracy is far improved over when I was a kid (and that has been more than just a few years ago).

I installed a small weather station at our property, just to track our very local weather pattern, as well as compare it to the local and regional forecast. It is amazing how much the weather at our property can vary from what's happening even 5 miles away.

Well at least we can accurately predict the weather within a degree or two 50 or 100 years from now!! BM61

Like a lot of people, I use the weather forcast to figure out my next move out at the farm. I use Weather.com a lot, but they seem to overcall the rain forcast often. I frequently recheck the site for updates on the forecasted rain, and more often than not, the rain event shrinks or goes away altogether. My theory is that they exaggerate the forecast, knowing that it will be checked again and again, resulting in accelerated rate of "hits" on their site. They of course are selling ad space at a rate determined on the volume of 'hits".

Ha, So True. I would say follow the money. Millions are being spent on solar and provides few jobs. Solar is a high profit business and being pushed hard in places like DC. It is suggested as a new startup business for those that are looking for a business start up.
I started a new wildlife food plot this week and planted winter forage wheat along with some Elbon Rye grain seeds. Planted the day before yesterday with an 80% chance of rain. So I rushed the job and no rain showed up. The forecast for this week is high pressure, bluebird days for the rest of the week. Oh well, rain has to show up sometime soon, it's that time of the year.

Tracy

4 neighbors; all within 1.5 miles and 1 in about 1/8 miles. Our rain gauges seldom agree.

I'll bet we can predict the average temp this winter more accurately than the temp on Christmas day too. This is how averages work. Weather and climate prediction are not the same animal.