When it comes to chemistry/biology I am definitely a lay person. Our ponds will certainly be in the 39F-42F temp range in late Jan thru late Feb....we always have a winter period here in the St. Louis area where outdoor temps spend weeks in the 5F-20F range. And the ponds will certainly be exposed to a lot of surface wind over the rest of this winter and thru March.
If I am reading your answer above correctly, and if what I outlined above is the case, then there should be plenty of DO in the water column as this cold water will have churned/mixed quite a bit through late winter into mid-March.
And taking it further, then a slow start up of an aerator where it runs for an hour per day for a week or so (with surface water temps consistently in the 50F-55F range)and then slowly moving it to 24/7 over the course of say 2 additional weeks sounds like it should work well....once again if I am reading your answer correctly???
I am finding the aeration question to be more tricky than I anticipated. I initially found the concept pretty much of a no-brainer...i.e., add oxygen, help with algae control, knock down nitrogen and phosphate levels, etc. but now I am not so sure to be honest. And the article in the November/December issue of PB leaves a lot of questions unanswered in my opinion.
I appreciate your answer Bill and will strive to understand the "science" behind aeration better before spending thousands of dollars on a system.