Scott, In this case the creek is only a surface level water flow. It is truly seasonal and only runs with water run off and heavy rains. I have dug 5 ft away and the creek is so heavy with clay there isnt any seepage even five ft away as its running. I do have my areator runningin about 2-3 ft of water to keep an off gas hole opening at the mouth of the pond near the seasonal creek.
As for the ice cap, I can understand that and was wondering that myself. The thing is that I do not have any seepage in the winter months. I can understand what your saying for the spring or summer, but the winter months I am not losing anything that I can tell.
I would not be able to do anything with a dye mix. I tried that initially but since this is a dug pond and no dam area and is at surface level. I did not see any dye anywhere. I wish it were that easy.
If its not the ice then maybe its the soil thats saturated during these months due to heavy clay content. Still looking for an explanation that fits all the data at hand.