Didn't say never, but astronomical.
O.K. my bad.
With the particular example I cited there are dozens of herons on this farm on a daily basis so perhaps these dozens of birds making numerous trips from pond to pond would increase the odds?
Aren't eggs sticky after being fertilized to stay in the nest of centrarchids? If not what would keep wind action from moving them into less desirable silty areas? If they are sticky what would prevent them from sticking to the feed of a heron marching through bluegill beds?