Zach,
No question they have an intolerance for low water temps....but they also have what I call a common sense mechanism that causes them to seek out the warmest water source. I've seen ice on portions of Galveston Bay, but most of the reds do just fine because they move to deeper warmer water. I've caught redfish 20 miles out in the Gulf in 80 feet of water in some severe winters.
The reason I think there is some possibility of winter survival in ponds at my latitude is that I've got some 25 foot water in one pond. I think there is a reasonable probability that they can survive there in most of the winters like we have had the last few years. I'd like to try it because the potential rewards far outweigh the risks, IMO.