GTS,
Mozambique Tilapia, the only Tilapia we are allowed in Texas, begins to go dormant at about 63 degrees water temps. I've observed the picking off or more like slaughter between 55 and 60 degrees water temps. It isn't real precise...but the Tilapia become kind of disoriented and swim erratically and that really inspires the predator instint in LMB and HSB.
Relative to shad, I think both have a place. The threadfin initially and the gizzard two or preferably three years after the predators (either LMB or HSB or both) are stocked. The gizzards can get large, but are very controlable, at least in my pond, by larger LMB and HSB...thats why its important to wait on the gizzards.
NEDOC, I haven't observed any temp problems on the lower end but our winters are fairly mild. Last winter I still had HSB feeding artificially in the 50 to 55 degree range and showing no signs of stress at all.
p.s. GTS I love to Tarpon fish and bonefish and try for Permit (although I haven't been successful on them on the fly yet, but I will)