Pond Boss Forums INTRO Questions & Observations Global warming

October 29, 2007

Global warming is a very important and controversial subject. It is also a very complicated issue. I think it needs to be discussed here, in an organized manner. Ewest, I hope you provide links to other discussions about this subject.

There are many points to be made about Global Warming. I�d like to start with the things that are agreed upon by everyone and then go to the things that are in disagreement.

The earth is extremely resilient. It and the life on it will go on, no matter what happens.

The earth is warming. It is also warming at a faster rate than has ever been found in the past. There might have been some disagreement about this 3-4 years ago but now the evidence is overwhelming.

Part of this warming is caused by human activity and other parts by natural cycles. It doesn�t matter the percentage of each since the only part we can do anything about is the part caused by human activity.

Our means of measuring the climate is constantly increasing. We have bigger and faster computers, more satellites and more weather sensors deployed than ever before. This allows scientists to model the climate with increasing precision.

There are over 6 billion people living in this world and the number is increasing rapidly. Many of them are forced to live in places where they are exposed to life threatening weather.

People with money and the means to deal with climate change will be affected much less than the poor. Technology will offset many climate changes but only for those people and countries that have the means to apply this technology.

These things are agreed upon by most people. Now for the things where there is less agreement.

The biggest and most certain prediction is that climate and weather will become more erratic. That means more and bigger storms, fires, droughts, floods etc.

Predicting future climate changes is extremely difficult. The 800 lb. gorilla in all of this is what are called �feedback loops�. This just means that when one thing happens, it causes another thing to happen. It is this second thing that is so hard to predict. For example, the Artic Ocean appears to be melting much faster than anyone thought possible. This will be great for shipping as it will be an easy way for ships to get from the Atlantic to the Pacific. No one has the slightest idea what this will do to climate and weather.

Once major climate changes take place, it will be extremely difficult to change things back. There is a great deal of disagreement about this. Some scientists are thinking up ways to do this such as partially blocking the sun, or seeding the oceans. Any of these actions could make things worse as easily as they could make things better.

Not talking about plant and animal extinctions, there are three major areas where climate change will affect us.

Economic: This is a mixed bag. Some people in the right place or access to the needed technologies could do very well indeed. Poor people living in low-lying areas will get flooded out. It�s not just poor people that will be affected by rapid climate change. Imagine what will happen next year if Atlanta runs out of water and the rains don�t come for a number of years. I�m not suggesting this is caused by global warming. Rather, I use this to illustrate what a localized, short-term drought (5-10 years) could do to a major American city. Australia is in the midst of the worst drought in recorded history with no relief in sight. Australians are being forced to accept water rationing to a degree that most of us would find hard to accept. A Thai government report states �We feel that with the ground sinking and the sea water rising, Bangkok will be under sea water in the next 15 to 20 years � permanently�. I hope that Rad will comment on this. I�m not saying that these events are the direct result of Global Warming. Rather, the point is that rapid climate change isn�t a fun, easy or cheap thing to deal with.

National defense. Who would think that global warming would have anything to do with national defense? In April of this year, 6 retired admirals and 5 retired generals including former Army Chief-of-Staff; Gordon Sullivan wrote an open letter stating that they considered global warming one of the chief threats to national security. Their reasoning? Hundreds of millions of people live on islands or low lying areas that are currently being and will continue to be lost to the sea. The rich and educated people can find places to live. There isn�t a country in the world that wants the rest of these people. Some of these people will oblige us by just dying quietly. However, many others will decide they have nothing to loose by attacking other people or countries and taking what they need to live.

Morality. For Christians, Christ said this in Matthew 25:41-46.

41 Then shall He say also unto them on the left hand, Depart from me, ye cursed, into everlasting fire, prepared for the devil and his angels:
42 For I was hungry, and you gave me no meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me no drink:
42 I was a stranger, and ye took me not in: naked, and ye clothed me not: sick, and in prison and ye visited me not.
43 Then shall they also answer him, saying, Lord, when did we see You hungry, or thirsty, or a stranger, or naked, or sick or in prison and did not minister to you?
44 Then shall He answer them, saying, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye did it not to one of the least of these, ye did it not to me.
45 And these shall go away into everlasting punishment: but the righteous into life eternal.

Most estimates say that about 800 million people go to bed hungry every day. Climate change will only increase that number. We can say �Lord, Lord� all we want and make all kinds of excuses for not feeding these people and adding to their number. Maybe Christ doesn�t care and didn�t really mean what he said. We�ll all have to see.

I don�t mean to be preachy about the morality issue but it is the most important one to me personally. If this is judged to be inappropriate for this forum, I will delete it.

This isn�t a conservative or liberal issue. Storms, droughts, fires etc. don�t care about our political persuasions.

It seems to me that the best way to discuss this is to make comments about specific parts of the issue.

I started to reply bet will not for now. This is a very divisive topic probably better left for another forum. Norm I appreciate you and agree it is a subject for discussion (usually it involves yelling and screaming and worse). I have locked the topic and asked Bob to decide how to handle it.