The Wharton School of Business puts the upper bound at 300,000 deaths by the end of June if states reopen.
Bocomo so I guess I wasn't really considering how many "experts" are producing "models" out there...of course so many models/projections have already been wrong.....and many models/projections are based on unknown information and assumptions.....Obviously many real-world variables can cause model assumptions to be inaccurate and affect the true outcome.
But yes the models range the whole gamut and many models state "under certain circumstances" X "could" happen....so pick a number and you can probably find that "model".
I'm not sure there are many like Wharton claiming under certain scenarios that by the end of June there "could be" 300,000 US Deaths from COVID.
Even Gu’s model projects that U.S. Covid-19 deaths by early August could be as low as 88,217 and as high as 293,381, with a most likely toll of 150,760.
It appears Wharton is greatly increasing even Gu's projections for end of June....and Gu is known as pushing the upper possible limits.
If there are 300,000 US deaths from COVID by the end of June 2020 Bocomo I will buy you a new boat.
And neither of those things are going to happen.
All models are bad. Some are worse than others.
Wharton's setup is less of a prediction than a simulation in the sense that you can change the parameters and re-run it to see the effects. The upper bound they report is if you relax all the virus restrictions for all states immediately which is not going to happen. The most interesting part of the model is their prediction of how stay-at-home vs. social distancing vs. going back to "normal" affects the economy.
