Of course none of us want our hospitals over-run, but whose to say the rest of the country will be exactly like NY?
Some countries have had a lot less problems than Italy.....why?....a lot of reasons.
Maybe a lot of states will have a lot less problems than NY?
Models are not always correct.....many people rightfully doubted or scoffed at computer models that predicted, say, where a hurricane would make landfall or who was guaranteed to win a presidential election. It was a world-is-ending projection two weeks ago that there would be as many as 500,000 dead in the United Kingdom and as many as 2.2 million dead in the United States offered up by professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London. That fired up the media’s panic machine. Professor Ferguson has since drastically scaled back his model to fewer than 20,000 deaths in Britain.
All I know is as of this morning Texas with a population very close to 29 million has around 90-100 deaths....w/around 5800 cases. Of course those figures will go up.....but 100 deaths out of 29 million?
Just for perspective cancer kills around 600,000 people in the US yearly. And heart disease kills another 600,000 in the US every year.
There are between 45,000 - 50,000 suicides in the US yearly.....and a destroyed economy will likely greatly increase that.
I know it's not all about the deaths, it's about the hospitals.
However I think the different medical discoveries/treatments will get this to a manageable state for the hospitals and when that happens I think we need to open the economy back up.
Sunil take a look at this author....he speaks about what you have questioned and his bio is quite impressive: Professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University
