Pond Boss Forums INTRO Questions & Observations A different type of long term weather forecast

I had not seen this till recently. Not smart enough to comment on its validity.

Those of you with scientific backgrounds, would this be considered scientific? Or something else? I am not familiar with peer reviews and such.

If the guy has it correct, a lot of people may be blindsided from what is currently expected. Ice skating on Texas ponds anyone?

http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2413/global-cooling-forecast-basics-astrometeorology

Edit: I like his quote at the very end of his explanation. Would work for a pond situation also.

I can't comment on it's validity, but for sure I can comment on the "Don't mess with mother nature" comment. I agree. We can mitigate or change little things here or there, but the big things? I don't think we have any control over them. There have been ice ages before, and warm spells. Climate change is normal in my book, and we as man have been here on this earth for only the blink of an eye, and recorded weather data is even over a much shorter period of time.

What can we do to alter an F5 tornado, Hurricane or a massive rain that dumps feet of rain over a few months? Not a darn thing.

The suns effect on Earth temperatures.

Given history it looks like we are way over due for the next Maunder Minimum.

I would like to call BS on this guy but I am a biochemist, not an astrophysicist. His theories might have an impact but it sounds like a way to say some fancy words and be considered and expert to people uninformed in the topic. I have not heard of any physicist that support his theory (I am sure I am wrong). Why doesn't he write it up with his data and submit it to the other experts in a peer-reviewed journal instead of posting it on an online forum? My guess is it's bogus.




I disagree. Hurricanes for example, as water warms it evaporates quicker. More water in the air powers stronger hurricanes. And the oceans are definitely warming. I learned long ago to not argue if it's man made or not. But I will say we alter mother nature all the time. People do it on a small scale. I am right now in my green house. If I can change the environment in a 25x40 greenhouse by myself think of what 7 billion people could do....

My thinking is along the same lines esshup. I think we are the ant that climbs to the top of the ant hill and claims to be master of the world. Me thinks we think too highly of our abilities.

But on a positive note (don't want to be all doom and gloom), lets just assume for a moment that the man made global warming theory is right AND this guy is right also. One offsets the other and presto!, we have perfect Goldilocks weather.

It could happen.

We have changed the face of the planet and the plants that grow on much of the earth. We have also affected the percentage of gasses in the air. It seems probable that what grows on most of the planet and makes up the atmosphere might affect weather and climate.

I've heard a big volcano eruption will do the trick too. Blocking out the sun and all along with all the acid and other stuff. I've read termites put out tremendous amounts of CO2 but me being a crop grower that is probably not a bad thing.

Ditto Rah. When you see 26.8 billion tons of Co2 released antropogenically vs. only 200 million tons annually by volcanoes it becomes quite clear that man is indeed capable of changing earth's atmophere.

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html


To me it's quite obvious how we've shaped and dominated the earth when I fly at night at 30,000 feet and see how much of the U.S. is lit up, and we aren't even the earth's most densely populated country.

At least fish aren't capable of nuclear weapons after they overeat their food supply.

White is an astrologist. Nuff said.


http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.com/

We know(I think) that a growing world population and assorted advances does affect the atmosphere.

I once read that Genghis Kahn slaughtered so many people that it caused a cooling of the area. No idea whether that is true.

But, I've not seen any of the global warming theorists walking to the meetings.

Maybe, maybe not. The ability to make accurate predictions is what makes for good science. There is a complex interaction of different drivers of climate and certainly the solar cycle is one of the those drivers, but just how influential the solar cycle is remains to be understood. Right now the sun is in weak solar cycle and has been for some time. Nasa described the last solar minimum during 2008-2009 as a century class event which included a puzzling collapse of the earth's upper atmosphere. If solar activity or the lack thereof were the primary player in driving climate then we should have observed some sort of drop or pause in warming, but we didn't.

Do you remember the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption?



Volcanic activity, or the lack of it for long periods of time is also a significant climate driver. Others climate drivers to consider are the Albedo effect, positve feedback loops, and possibly gases released through human activity.

I fear that our HBG are, in fact, weaponizing a cold water variant of FA underneath the ice. If they perfect a long-range delivery platform, all may be lost.

Auntie Em, Auntie Em, they do have a snow plow in KY!

Tony, if the HBG ever get together with RES we will be in trouble. RES have already learned to camouflage their bloodthirsty tendencies in just 9 years.

I can barely remember what I had for breakfast.

Nuf to make your head spin, ain't it?

Head spin

Might be a good thing.....

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wildern...rs-ago-its-true

Nah, it's just complicated with a lot of things to consider, ponds are a lot simpler.

There used to be a web page called "Jupiter's Dance" that went into a lot detail about a 179 year cycle with planetary movement and how it drives the solar cycle. There is probably something to it but not enough to make accurate climate predictions. My gut feeling is that the interaction between solar activity and climate has more to do with the frequency and strength of solar flares and coronal mass ejections hitting the earth and expanding the atmosphere, variance in UV light, and the production of cloud cover. Science is still trying to figure out the details.

Now if the planets align just just right maybe HBG will rule the world. I just want to know how this new 9th planet they just announced figures into all of this.

This research about the sun's activity was recently published at the Royal Astronomy Society. It has been well tested and, in my opinion, has a good track record. Brr!

"A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645."

https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo

With all due respect even though your article theorizes, "solar activity will fall by 60 percent during the 2030's," which coincides with "conditions last seen during the mini ice age," it's really not known for sure if that will duplicate the "mini ice age." In fact it's still not necessarily accepted that sun spot activity cycles coincide with earth weather.

This is my take on the earth heating and then cooling. There is a conveyor belt of water that circles the oceans called the gulf stream. It picks up warm water in the tropical zones and transports it to areas like Great Britain and keep their temperatures unnaturally warm. Then as the water cools the gulf stream in salt water the gulf stream drops to the bottom of the ocean and flows back to the hot regions of the earth again picking up heat, (heat rises and heated water does also) and flows back to the cooler regions like Great Britain. With global warming you have the oceans rising with much more fresh water the salty oceans are less salty and that becomes a big problem stopping the drop of the water to the bottom of the ocean and the gulf stream conveyor belt stops completely. Thus ice skating in Texas. I am not a scientist but a concerned citizen. One cannot be anti science on this stuff

At the end of the day, this stuff is very complex and none of us are climate scientists. It comes down to who you trust. When my kid's get sick, I take them to a medical professional.

John, in trying to keep my list of climate drivers short I did inadvertently leave the flow global ocean currents and the Pacific decadal oscillation off my list.

I was just trying to give our Texans some hope that they too could ice fish their ponds some day!

Predicting weather is not so easy in the short term, much less long term. To get my pilot license, I took flying lessons to learn how to fly a plane. I took ground school that was mostly about weather. Weather plays a big part of flying because you need to know the weather from departure point to destination point. So you have to know the weather now and you must forecast the weather at destination point. Not near as easy as it sounds. Reading weather maps, highs and lows, mountain air effects etc. I was taught to get weather reports from at least 5 different sources. Some of these weather reports were from weather Scientist(Meteorologist). But we were taught not to depend on these scientist and as seen when researching prior to flight we might get different weather forecast from different Meteorologist. So as a pilot you are taught not to rely on weather scientist but to rely on ourselves.

Tracy

Not sure what the short term weather will be but I bet it will warm up in spring, get hotter during the summer, and cool down in autumn. The argument that weather prediction should be more accurate than climate prediction seems to be a favorite among a certain crowd, but is just a distraction from the science.