Forums36
Topics41,010
Posts558,491
Members18,529
|
Most Online3,612 Jan 10th, 2023
|
|
8 members (andrew davis, Angler8689, Waxaholic, Bigtrh24, highflyer, catscratch, Boondoggle, Theo Gallus),
1,242
guests, and
555
robots. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1
Hall of Fame Lunker
|
OP
Hall of Fame Lunker
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1 |
The media is making this everything but the storm of the century but when I went to the NWS I saw this:
(Note the Red highlights)
000 WTNT42 KNHC 310857 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/14. THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 24.2N 85.0W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 25.6N 86.3W 120 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.5N 88.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT...NEAR COAST 48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.5N 92.2W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/0600Z 31.7N 93.7W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND
$$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
Hey better safe than sorry and regardless this will be a hurricane upon landfall. But could the media be exaggerating a little bit?
Last edited by Cecil Baird1; 08/31/08 11:04 AM.
If pigs could fly bacon would be harder to come by and there would be a lot of damaged trees.
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 3,973
Ambassador Field Correspondent Lunker
|
Ambassador Field Correspondent Lunker
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 3,973 |
We are watching it closely while I'm in here in Panama City Beach, Fl. went on charter boat trip yesterday (caugth a few kings), very calm at sea. Today wind so strong can't take the kids on the beach from sand in their eyes. Double red flag so not allowed in the water. Might leave ealry tommorrow instead of tuesday due to rain, but storm missed us thank godness.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388 |
This hurricane has been predicted to be very similar to Betsy (1965)...I lived thru that one having come from the South. These things have been known to sit in the Gulf, strengthen, change direction, come back, etc. National Hurricane Center is the best information anyone can get that wants update. I have a very large family that is all over the south tip of Louisiana and I worry about them as I'm in Indiana and they are down there. We cannot help it, we grew up around this. Severe ones are devastating as we saw with Katrina. Any hurricane that hits the United States causes devastation, cost lives and money. I fear the worst but hope for the best in this hurricane. I am constant contact with family down there making sure the are safe and out of the way. No hurricane should be taken lightly.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1
Hall of Fame Lunker
|
OP
Hall of Fame Lunker
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1 |
This hurricane has been predicted to be very similar to Betsy (1965)...I lived thru that one having come from the South. These things have been known to sit in the Gulf, strengthen, change direction, come back, etc. National Hurricane Center is the best information anyone can get that wants update. I have a very large family that is all over the south tip of Louisiana and I worry about them as I'm in Indiana and they are down there. We cannot help it, we grew up around this. Severe ones are devastating as we saw with Katrina. Any hurricane that hits the United States causes devastation, cost lives and money. I fear the worst but hope for the best in this hurricane. I am constant contact with family down there making sure the are safe and out of the way. No hurricane should be taken lightly. Your absolutely right Mark. But I wasn't taking it lightly. Just noticing a contradiction and found it noteworthy.
If pigs could fly bacon would be harder to come by and there would be a lot of damaged trees.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
No problem for me if the media is exaggerating a lot. In fact, I'd like this entire matter to be a hoax.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2003
Posts: 1,902
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Apr 2003
Posts: 1,902 |
Take care down there Dudley.
Pond Boss Subscriber & Books Owner
If you can read this ... thank a teacher. Since it's in english ... thank our military! Ric
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,512 Likes: 270
Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,512 Likes: 270 |
After all the criticism every level of gov. took after the 05 twins they have to be highly overcautious. They are in a no win situation. They get blamed for needless , repeated evacuations on one end and blamed for the effects of cat 4 and 5s on the other end.
The best info is to look at the puter models and read the possible explanation for the differences. Cecil I saw that report and it was a big change from the previous day's. I think that change was unexpected. Heck that is why forecasting is so hard - weather changes quick.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
Thanks, Ric. I'm about 100 miles inland in Marksville but my ponds, equipment and the camp I'm building are about ten miles from the Gulf. I'll let you know how I fared after I'm able to get a look at the property when this is over. As an understatement, this show is suspenseful and certainly interesting.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1
Hall of Fame Lunker
|
OP
Hall of Fame Lunker
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1 |
After all the criticism every level of gov. took after the 05 twins they have to be highly overcautious. They are in a no win situation. They get blamed for needless , repeated evacuations on one end and blamed for the effects of cat 4 and 5s on the other end.
The best info is to look at the puter models and read the possible explanation for the differences. Cecil I saw that report and it was a big change from the previous day's. I think that change was unexpected. Heck that is why forecasting is so hard - weather changes quick. You're so right Eric but I see no mention in the media of these changes. I just looked at the latest discussion by the NWS and it said: USTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by Cecil Baird1; 08/31/08 02:08 PM.
If pigs could fly bacon would be harder to come by and there would be a lot of damaged trees.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1
Hall of Fame Lunker
|
OP
Hall of Fame Lunker
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 20,043 Likes: 1 |
No problem for me if the media is exaggerating a lot. In fact, I'd like this entire matter to be a hoax. I wish it was for your sakes too. I just have a problem with the media pumping this up for ratings. What I would really be concerned about -- at least in Texas -- is that this thing will probably go stationary and dump at least a foot of rain. Sorry I've always had an interest in weather and even went to tech school for it in the Air Force. It just irks me why the media doesn't want to be honest with the facts.
Last edited by Cecil Baird1; 08/31/08 02:12 PM.
If pigs could fly bacon would be harder to come by and there would be a lot of damaged trees.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
Thanks, Cecil. The media does seem to like a good disaster.
With your training you must find these storms especially interesting.
My hope is that Gustav lifts up and relocates to the Dallas area to refill Dave's ponds.
I find it amazing that with all the variables involved, the weather services can be as accurate as they have been.
From the information that you posted, I am eagerly awaiting Gustav's turn to the southwest. Sooner is better.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388 |
You're right about the media; they have me pretty hyped and showing it so much and I'm sitting up here in Indiana worried about family in Louisiana (watching the TV to keep up) and nothing I can do but wait it out. My husband said I'm more worried about it than my family down there (he's right). I worry about this thing standing stationary and strenghtening and just dumping water, dumping water, dumping water--
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
Not to worry, Madam. Where is your family located? As Eric pointed out, if authorities err, they will err on the side of caution exemplified by their not using the superdome as a shelter. Mandatory evacuation has emptied endangered towns and cities. You, like I, anxiously await Gustav's turn to the southwest. Sooner is better.
If your family is native to south Louisiana, they have been through many storms and will not unnecessarily expose themselves to danger. Their property is probably insured and they might actually realize a net gain.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4,025 Likes: 1
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 4,025 Likes: 1 |
With it coming in from the southeast, vs. from the south, the possibility of a greater area of surge exists. I am glad Cuba took some wind out of it's sails or else it could be much worse. I've been in a 100mph a couple of times, and it aint no fun. Above 100, every 10kts means a lot.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388 |
Born and raised in South Louisiana. Many relatives went to Baton Rouge, some further North Louisiana and some go up to Houston. Actually grew up half way between New Orleans and Baton Rouge on the Mississippi River but most relatives out of Kenner, Metairie, Gretna, used to have some down on Buris until Katrina. Most have evacuated, the others farther north are staying at Mom's (should be OK there). I remember all to well, Betsy, the eye of the storm, the howling, the wind, pretty scary when you're a kid. Stay secure, Dudley, as you ride it out.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,512 Likes: 270
Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,512 Likes: 270 |
First if you guys - Dudley , Bobad or any others need help let us know. God's speed and protection for you all.
I have been through so many of these I can't recall them all. In NO for Betsy. Ripped the second story off all the houses on our street (we only had a one story)and killed a neighbor when a 4X4 went through the plywood over his sliding glass door and hit him in the head. In Gulfport right after Camille - nothing standing within 10 blocks of the beach. Katrina , Fredrick , and a bunch more.
The power is unfathomable until experienced. My brother was a documenter for the Guard after Katrina. They were there the next am and stayed for a mth - off for a week and back for another mth. They measured the max water line on a telephone pole in Bay St. Louis at 47 feet above sea level.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,365
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,365 |
Thanks again Eric. We'll be fine here. The only thing I worry about are trees falling. I lost 6 large oaks to Lili, all within striking distance of the house, but no hits.
Luckily, I happened to be in Beaumont when Betsy hit. When I got home to Independence, things looked a lot different than when I left.
I rode out Camille in Hammond, where we had very high winds. That was my scariest storm until Lili, which spawned tornadoes that nearly took my house away.
I've noticed the NHC and NWS sandbagging a little. They like to err on the side of caution, because many people don't have any idea what they're dealing with.
Last edited by bobad; 08/31/08 08:43 PM.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
I'm happy to know that your family has evacuated. As you said, they should be safe in north LA.
Eric, I was in the Gulfport area about two weeks after Camille and was amazed to see all those gorgeous homes on the beach gone. Nothing left but house piers or concrete slabs with the odd bathtub left here and there on the slabs. The stories of personal tragedy abound and are heartrending. I believe that Camille is the reason that most people now suck it up and evacuate with little complaint. Now, instead of the horror stories, we hear heartwarming stories of kindnesses shown the evacuees. Sort of restores one's faith in the basic goodness of mankind and serves to partially neutralize the fury we feel as we watch the looters and the pictures of the damaged superdome and vandalized shelters.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 388 |
So true Dudley. I remember how the Mississippi Coast used to look with all the beautiful homes and trees along the coast, not anymore. The same for a lot of New Orleans after Katrina. It changed these places forever. So sad. But yes mankind has came to the aid of others (regardless of the negativity that certain TV channels insisted on showing over and over). Gustav should land anytime now, the rain and tornados it spins off will cause the major damage. Button down the hatches, stay safe.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,086
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,086 |
I rode out Camiile on Pass Road in gulfport and many others since then.Please stay safe and if you need help after the storm,let us know.If needed,I have a couple of generaters.
I subscribe Some days you get the dog,and some days he gets you.Every dog has his day,and sometimes he has two!
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
|
Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 908 Likes: 9 |
Thanks so much for your kindness, Tom. No one would envy your Camille experience.
My generator is with me in Marksville although I don't expect to need it. The storm appears to be breaking up and, as Cecil posted, is tracking more to the west. There seems to be little reason to believe that the trend won't continue, in which case we'll have only a stiff wind with a little rain. It's very like having a snarling dog race up to you only to come to a sliding stop at your feet and then lick your hand.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 396
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 396 |
We are about 30 miles north of Gulfport, we have had our electrical power blink but the service remains intact. There has been rain off and on and a little wind. We will probably have a little more rain and wind. Go to http://www.wlox.com to get the latest. We laugh about the reporters that have a tendency to over play. This does not mean it is not serious but they have a tendency to get carried away. The reporters get so excited that when they sign off they do not realize who to pass on to for continued up date. We are pleased that it is not any worst.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 16,068 Likes: 280
Moderator Lunker
|
Moderator Lunker
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 16,068 Likes: 280 |
Thanks for the rain hopes Dud. However, it looks like we will, once again, get less than 1/2 inch.
It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.
Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.
Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 365
Lunker
|
Lunker
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 365 |
"Interesting contradiction about Hurricane Gustav"... I came home yesterday and Headline News was on, and they were covering Hurricane Gustav. The reporter was clinging to a light pole exclaiming how if he let go he would probably be blown away by the amazing winds. About thirty seconds later he was describing the location of something and said "if you look to my right", at which point, and without paying attention, he let go of the pole and pointed to his right. Needless to say, he kept his balance without ANY struggle.
-Chris 1 acre pond Currently managing: FHM, GSH, GSF, BG, PS, RES, LES, YP, SMB, LMB, HSB, RBT, WE, CC, FHC, and Grass Shrimp
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 13,997 Likes: 285
Moderator Lunker
|
Moderator Lunker
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 13,997 Likes: 285 |
Sounds like a lying sack of triple 19.
"Live like you'll die tomorrow, but manage your grass like you'll live forever." -S. M. Stirling
|
|
|
Moderated by Bill Cody, Bruce Condello, catmandoo, Chris Steelman, Dave Davidson1, esshup, ewest, FireIsHot, Omaha, Sunil, teehjaeh57
|
|