Pond Boss Forums GENERAL QUESTIONS Pond Boss Interesting contradiction about Hurricane Gustaf

The media is making this everything but the storm of the century but when I went to the NWS I saw this:

(Note the Red highlights)

000
WTNT42 KNHC 310857
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

APPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL
ON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING
TREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV
MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE
RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE
SKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

BASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS
MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
320/14. THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
WELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE
HURRICANE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV
NEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

BASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 24.2N 85.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 25.6N 86.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 27.5N 88.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT...NEAR COAST
48HR VT 02/0600Z 30.5N 92.2W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0600Z 31.7N 93.7W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Hey better safe than sorry and regardless this will be a hurricane upon landfall. But could the media be exaggerating a little bit?

We are watching it closely while I'm in here in Panama City Beach, Fl. went on charter boat trip yesterday (caugth a few kings), very calm at sea. Today wind so strong can't take the kids on the beach from sand in their eyes. Double red flag so not allowed in the water. Might leave ealry tommorrow instead of tuesday due to rain, but storm missed us thank godness.

This hurricane has been predicted to be very similar to Betsy (1965)...I lived thru that one having come from the South. These things have been known to sit in the Gulf, strengthen, change direction, come back, etc. National Hurricane Center is the best information anyone can get that wants update. I have a very large family that is all over the south tip of Louisiana and I worry about them as I'm in Indiana and they are down there. We cannot help it, we grew up around this. Severe ones are devastating as we saw with Katrina. Any hurricane that hits the United States causes devastation, cost lives and money. I fear the worst but hope for the best in this hurricane. I am constant contact with family down there making sure the are safe and out of the way. No hurricane should be taken lightly.

Your absolutely right Mark. But I wasn't taking it lightly. Just noticing a contradiction and found it noteworthy.

No problem for me if the media is exaggerating a lot. In fact, I'd like this entire matter to be a hoax.

Take care down there Dudley.

After all the criticism every level of gov. took after the 05 twins they have to be highly overcautious. They are in a no win situation. They get blamed for needless , repeated evacuations on one end and blamed for the effects of cat 4 and 5s on the other end.

The best info is to look at the puter models and read the possible explanation for the differences. Cecil I saw that report and it was a big change from the previous day's. I think that change was unexpected. Heck that is why forecasting is so hard - weather changes quick.

Thanks, Ric. I'm about 100 miles inland in Marksville but my ponds, equipment and the camp I'm building are about ten miles from the Gulf. I'll let you know how I fared after I'm able to get a look at the property when this is over. As an understatement, this show is suspenseful and certainly interesting.

You're so right Eric but I see no mention in the media of these changes.

I just looked at the latest discussion by the NWS and it said:

USTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE
COLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL.
WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER
GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW
GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD. SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW
MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR.

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT
LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL
LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE
AND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT
NOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS
BY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE
OTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
GUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.3N 86.0W 105 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 27.0N 87.7W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.7W 115 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 30.0N 91.5W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 95.9W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

I wish it was for your sakes too. I just have a problem with the media pumping this up for ratings.

What I would really be concerned about -- at least in Texas -- is that this thing will probably go stationary and dump at least a foot of rain.

Sorry I've always had an interest in weather and even went to tech school for it in the Air Force. It just irks me why the media doesn't want to be honest with the facts.

Thanks, Cecil. The media does seem to like a good disaster.

With your training you must find these storms especially interesting.

My hope is that Gustav lifts up and relocates to the Dallas area to refill Dave's ponds.

I find it amazing that with all the variables involved, the weather services can be as accurate as they have been.

From the information that you posted, I am eagerly awaiting Gustav's turn to the southwest. Sooner is better.

You're right about the media; they have me pretty hyped and showing it so much and I'm sitting up here in Indiana worried about family in Louisiana (watching the TV to keep up) and nothing I can do but wait it out. My husband said I'm more worried about it than my family down there (he's right). I worry about this thing standing stationary and strenghtening and just dumping water, dumping water, dumping water--

Not to worry, Madam. Where is your family located? As Eric pointed out, if authorities err, they will err on the side of caution exemplified by their not using the superdome as a shelter. Mandatory evacuation has emptied endangered towns and cities. You, like I, anxiously await Gustav's turn to the southwest. Sooner is better.

If your family is native to south Louisiana, they have been through many storms and will not unnecessarily expose themselves to danger. Their property is probably insured and they might actually realize a net gain.

With it coming in from the southeast, vs. from the south, the possibility of a greater area of surge exists. I am glad Cuba took some wind out of it's sails or else it could be much worse. I've been in a 100mph a couple of times, and it aint no fun. Above 100, every 10kts means a lot.

Born and raised in South Louisiana. Many relatives went to Baton Rouge, some further North Louisiana and some go up to Houston. Actually grew up half way between New Orleans and Baton Rouge on the Mississippi River but most relatives out of Kenner, Metairie, Gretna, used to have some down on Buris until Katrina. Most have evacuated, the others farther north are staying at Mom's (should be OK there). I remember all to well, Betsy, the eye of the storm, the howling, the wind, pretty scary when you're a kid. Stay secure, Dudley, as you ride it out.

First if you guys - Dudley , Bobad or any others need help let us know. God's speed and protection for you all.

I have been through so many of these I can't recall them all. In NO for Betsy. Ripped the second story off all the houses on our street (we only had a one story)and killed a neighbor when a 4X4 went through the plywood over his sliding glass door and hit him in the head. In Gulfport right after Camille - nothing standing within 10 blocks of the beach. Katrina , Fredrick , and a bunch more.

The power is unfathomable until experienced. My brother was a documenter for the Guard after Katrina. They were there the next am and stayed for a mth - off for a week and back for another mth. They measured the max water line on a telephone pole in Bay St. Louis at 47 feet above sea level.

Thanks again Eric. We'll be fine here. The only thing I worry about are trees falling. I lost 6 large oaks to Lili, all within striking distance of the house, but no hits.

Luckily, I happened to be in Beaumont when Betsy hit. When I got home to Independence, things looked a lot different than when I left.

I rode out Camille in Hammond, where we had very high winds. That was my scariest storm until Lili, which spawned tornadoes that nearly took my house away.

I've noticed the NHC and NWS sandbagging a little. They like to err on the side of caution, because many people don't have any idea what they're dealing with.

I'm happy to know that your family has evacuated. As you said, they should be safe in north LA.

Eric, I was in the Gulfport area about two weeks after Camille and was amazed to see all those gorgeous homes on the beach gone. Nothing left but house piers or concrete slabs with the odd bathtub left here and there on the slabs. The stories of personal tragedy abound and are heartrending. I believe that Camille is the reason that most people now suck it up and evacuate with little complaint. Now, instead of the horror stories, we hear heartwarming stories of kindnesses shown the evacuees. Sort of restores one's faith in the basic goodness of mankind and serves to partially neutralize the fury we feel as we watch the looters and the pictures of the damaged superdome and vandalized shelters.

So true Dudley. I remember how the Mississippi Coast used to look with all the beautiful homes and trees along the coast, not anymore. The same for a lot of New Orleans after Katrina. It changed these places forever. So sad. But yes mankind has came to the aid of others (regardless of the negativity that certain TV channels insisted on showing over and over). Gustav should land anytime now, the rain and tornados it spins off will cause the major damage. Button down the hatches, stay safe.

I rode out Camiile on Pass Road in gulfport and many others since then.Please stay safe and if you need help after the storm,let us know.If needed,I have a couple of generaters.

Thanks so much for your kindness, Tom. No one would envy your Camille experience.

My generator is with me in Marksville although I don't expect to need it. The storm appears to be breaking up and, as Cecil posted, is tracking more to the west. There seems to be little reason to believe that the trend won't continue, in which case we'll have only a stiff wind with a little rain. It's very like having a snarling dog race up to you only to come to a sliding stop at your feet and then lick your hand.

We are about 30 miles north of Gulfport, we have had our electrical power blink but the service remains intact. There has been rain off and on and a little wind. We will probably have a little more rain and wind. Go to http://www.wlox.com to get the latest. We laugh about the reporters that have a tendency to over play. This does not mean it is not serious but they have a tendency to get carried away. The reporters get so excited that when they sign off they do not realize who to pass on to for continued up date. We are pleased that it is not any worst.

Thanks for the rain hopes Dud. However, it looks like we will, once again, get less than 1/2 inch.

"Interesting contradiction about Hurricane Gustav"...
I came home yesterday and Headline News was on, and they were covering Hurricane Gustav. The reporter was clinging to a light pole exclaiming how if he let go he would probably be blown away by the amazing winds. About thirty seconds later he was describing the location of something and said "if you look to my right", at which point, and without paying attention, he let go of the pole and pointed to his right. Needless to say, he kept his balance without ANY struggle.

Sounds like a lying sack of triple 19.