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I don’t personally know anyone who has it.

But, my investments have taken a serious hit.


It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
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A cousin of mine in Wisconsin has it. He failed to practice proper social distancing. It's probably not going to kill him, but he's been very unhappy for the past couple weeks.

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For the last 2 weeks of March, my company did about 1/3 of the revenue it should have done.

For April, we think we'll do less than 1/10 of what we should do.

We need to get back to work.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

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My work hasn't stopped. We are on the Essential (Critical Infrastructure) list. Everyone has to be super careful around here. All you have to do is cough and you get sent home for 3 days. Some office people are working from home.
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The people who say I can't do it can just sit the @^#% down and watch me. Friends call me Rusto I also subscribe to pond boss mag. http://forums.pondboss.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=504716#Post504716
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Originally Posted by Sunil
We need to get back to work
Sunil my company is down 50%.....first layoffs in the history of company. Heard from our banker today and she said the emergency corona small business loans are a no-brainer. The banker stated that if you use the loan money for payroll some or all of it is likely to be forgiven...and any payback would be at an extremely low rate. We will look into it further, but will probably take the SBA loan so we can preserve some cash reserves for the funds needed to start back up when this panic is over.

A former employee had Corona. She was not hospitalized...had high temperature and diarrhea. She stayed in a separate bedroom from her husband and he would leave her food at the bedroom door. I just spoke with her and she is doing much better. She said it was basically like a bad case of the flu. She said they want to retest her next week. Her sister in Alabama also got it and is older and had a much rougher go. The link below is a news interview with her sister.

https://www.wvtm13.com/article/birm...ing-coronavirus-recovery-at-uab/31930592



Fishing has never been about the fish....

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Fishing has never been about the fish....

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The Dean just asked for volunteer scientists to assist with the Covid19 research effort. I volunteered. I run a cancer immunology program but we're going to retool and go back to work with a viral immunology program. We won't be handling infectious virus so our greatest concern is for infection from the other people in the lab. We'll do two shifts to space people out as much as possible.

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Originally Posted by Bocomo
The Dean just asked for volunteer scientists to assist with the Covid19 research effort. I volunteered. I run a cancer immunology program
Bocomo thank you for your important work and for volunteering.


Fishing has never been about the fish....

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Rusto, my company is also deemed 'essential.'

It's just that our customers are not doing our type of work. We work for large industrial sites like Power Plants, Refineries, Steel Mills, Chemical Plants, etc.

Some of our customers are still doing our type of work, but it's way, way reduced.

We'll survive of course, but it's a real kick in the stones.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

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Oh believe me I do know most companies are taking a hit from this. Maybe not charmin lol. Which I still dont understand. I will use my wifes t-shirt before I run out of food. We have took a hit at my work also. Also my wife does daycare. A few of the parents are teachers. They dont need daycare anymore when they dont work. And dont get me started on my 401k. But if this is what it takes to save just 1 of my family members I am more than happy to go thur it. If we all do our part hopefully we will never know how many lives have been saved. I wasn't alive for it but like if you look back at like smallpox it killed 300-500 million people. We hasnt as advanced then. Now we have the ability to communicate far away distances that we didnt have then. We know this is a very bad virus. If we dont irracate this while we have a chance who knows what will happen. Sorry for the long post. I have lost several from my wifes family already (car wrecks, drownings, seizures, and her brother getting hit by a boat's prop). Its never a good thing when it happens. There are several family's getting multiple members taken out by this in places. I could not imagine one of my kids getting this. If I thought theres more I could have did to protect them and I didnt do it. Well that would eat me alive. I dont want this by any means to seem like I am against people workin because I myself still am. I just want everyone to be as careful as possible. Also please feel free to disagree with me it wont hurt my feelings.


The people who say I can't do it can just sit the @^#% down and watch me. Friends call me Rusto I also subscribe to pond boss mag. http://forums.pondboss.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=504716#Post504716
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Originally Posted by RStringer
I could not imagine one of my kids getting this
Of course everyone will worry about their kids....but RS if they are ages 0-14 there is not a lot to worry about according to Dr. David Price a critical care pulmonologist caring for COVID-19 patients all day in NYC at Weill Cornell Hospital. I believe there has been only one infant in the US that tested positive that has died, and they have not confirmed yet that it died from corona.

I believe we have been asked to not discuss medical specifics in this thread but you can go to YouTube and search for "Dr. David Price" and see one of the most impressive talks about how to NOT get the coronavirus. He also speaks specifically about how kids 0-14 really have almost no worry of getting very sick from this...although they can carry and transmit it.


Fishing has never been about the fish....

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All,
I have resisted this thread until now because my attitudinal lensing is far different than most. With that said, here goes. This is bad. On that we all agree. But why it's bad differs. Some are loosing money, other family members, and others their way of life or sense of normalcy. For me it's my way of life. Year over year, 650,000 people die of heart disease related causes in the US, yet we don't mobilize like this. Drugs, alcohol, suicide and other causes take over 100,000 more. We have concerts, specials, and donation events. But life goes on for most.

The American machine is coming to life to tackle this issue ( as is the world). That is awesome to watch with a bit of pride.

I am trying to look to the future, will this last? Will we come out of this stronger, more united, and with a sense of community? Or after this is defeated, will we fade back to the old ways and forget most of the hard learned lessons? I find myself thanking a lot more people for their efforts, but from a distance. I am more aware of the sacrifices of others, but for how long?

The unintended consequences of this must be a better "us". If not, we lost a once in a lifetime opportunity to be greater than the sum of our parts. Sadly the greatest generation is again going to sacrifice the most. It's just not fair, but what is.

To all that are sacrificing, thank you. For all that have rolled up theirs sleeves, thanks also. We all can do our part no matter how small, it all helps.

Let's not forget this. In the future, let's be more prepared. I don't want to be fooled like this again.

Time to strap on a jet and do my part. Stay safe, do your part and help the least among us. But most of all, remember these lessons, the price is high and I don't want to pay for them again.


Brian

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I think we are seeing the best out of a lot of people during this crisis. I certainly don't want people dying unnecessarily.

As I may have mentioned early on, I've had a hard time matching up the actual threat of this virus against the societal and economic consequences.

I feel the usage of 'death rate' statistics has been incredibly irresponsible if not plain asinine, unless, of course, idiotic 'death rates' were used for a purpose.

The development or discovery of a viable treatment (Azithro./Chloroquine/Zinc) is something that should be bringing this thing to a quicker end. I know it makes me feel better, but it doesn't seem to be quelling things, or at least does not seem to be getting publicized.

Regarding stats, I'm also dubious on what are actual deaths due solely to COVID verses people that die who also have COVID, only as it may relate to the actual severity of the actual virus.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
"She took another microscopic bite of her sandwich, then pushed it away. Maybe she absorbed nutrients from her surroundings."

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Originally Posted by Sunil
I think we are seeing the best out of a lot of people during this crisis. I certainly don't want people dying unnecessarily.

As I may have mentioned early on, I've had a hard time matching up the actual threat of this virus against the societal and economic consequences.

I feel the usage of 'death rate' statistics has been incredibly irresponsible if not plain asinine, unless, of course, idiotic 'death rates' were used for a purpose.

The development or discovery of a viable treatment (Azithro./Chloroquine/Zinc) is something that should be bringing this thing to a quicker end. I know it makes me feel better, but it doesn't seem to be quelling things, or at least does not seem to be getting publicized.

Regarding stats, I'm also dubious on what are actual deaths due solely to COVID verses people that die who also have COVID, only as it may relate to the actual severity of the actual virus.


You're right in that death rates are a red herring. Nearly everyone will survive.

But focus on the case hospitalization rate, which is running at about 15%. We must not exceed the capacity of our health care system. When that happens, the whole system breaks down. People will die from what would have been otherwise survivable events as they are refused admission or refused ICU care based on wartime-style triage criteria.

Most estimates suggest somewhere between 40-70% of all Americans will contract COVID19. We have 372M people, and let's say 50% will get it, so that's about 186M people infected. At 15% case hospitalization that's MILLIONS of people requiring hospitalization. We absolutely cannot handle that many people being sick all at once. If we don't apply drastic public health methods to slow down this train, we will have a complete disaster and millions will die not necessarily from the virus but from lack of access to care. Italy was the warning shot for the world, and they have MORE beds per population than we do.

Simply put, if the hospitals are full of COVID19 patients, where do we put everyone with heart disease? Where do we put the car accident victims, the stroke victims, the heart attack patients? How do we assist women with difficult childbirths? How do we perform life-saving surgeries?

We are suffering economically now to buy the healthcare system time to add capacity. To increase testing, yes, but more importantly to add bed numbers, ventilator stockpiles and critical protective equipment.


Last edited by Bocomo; 04/02/20 04:19 PM.
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Bocomo, I appreciate your viewpoint and value your opinion.

I do understand the dangers of overwhelming our hospital/healthcare system. One aspect to even consider is that we can build more beds, but we can't just create more doctors or nurses, or medical technicians. So, I do get that aspect.

How do you feel about the hospitalization rate of approx. 15%?

I do wonder how accurate that statistic can be when we seem to both agree that the 'death rate' statistic is....well....whatever we want to call it.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
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Meanwhile, China has reopened wet markets, with bats, dogs, cats, and wild animals for sale to the discriminating diner.

We can expect future novel virus epidemics, as they leap from animals to humans in China. Unbelievable.


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Originally Posted by Sunil
Bocomo, I appreciate your viewpoint and value your opinion.

I do understand the dangers of overwhelming our hospital/healthcare system. One aspect to even consider is that we can build more beds, but we can't just create more doctors or nurses, or medical technicians. So, I do get that aspect.

How do you feel about the hospitalization rate of approx. 15%?

I do wonder how accurate that statistic can be when we seem to both agree that the 'death rate' statistic is....well....whatever we want to call it.


It's not that the death rate is wrong. Pond Boss answer: it depends. All these numbers depend critically on the availability of testing, the underlying age & health of the population it is infecting, as well as that population's ability to provide appropriate care. We still don't have the tests we were promised weeks ago so U.S. rates will float around. Compared to Italy, we are younger but we have worse health (obesity and diabetes are risk factors for poor COVID19 outcome) and less healthcare capacity. Projections of 200,000-2M deaths in the US are the consensus.

As for the case hospitalization rate, 15% is terrifying. It also seems like a good estimate to me. But you don't have to take my word for it...in NYC right now it's running around 20% as reported by NY public health.

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Originally Posted by RAH


Hope you're right. I have no confidence that what China says corresponds with reality


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Most news sources bring bias to their reporting. People see the world through their ideological beliefs. Very sobering situation right now.

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I'm finally taking this seriously. But, don't go to extremes at any time on taking care of myself. I realize that, at 77 yoa, I'm no longer bullet or virus proof. I refuse to be a fatalist which just might be a chink in my armor.

Wife is now working from home which is a good thing since she doesn't have to drive to Dallas.

Really concerned about the national and world economy. A lot of companies aren't going to make it. The resulting micro and macro economics numbers aren't /won't be pretty and my calculations say the US and world are in a jam. I'll stop there to keep out of the resulting political thoughts and discussions here.

I'm down about $50K in one investment but it's still paying dividends on my original investments of 5%. But, my refrigerator and gas tank are both full. Big chunks of people in the world have never been able to say that.

HUNKER DOWN AND WAIT


It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

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I just feel like we are not basing our actions on real statistics, and it just seems like any valid 'corrections' in the stats would point this COVID virus to being far less severe than what the world is acting like. For example, did John Doe die from COVID, or 'with' COVID? Further, who all is infected? Asymptomatic people have to be in the statistics, but they are not.

Now, we do see the 'world' reacting to it, so we know that something is serious.

People are starting to ignore the social distancing guidelines, and that is starting to cause dissent between them and those who feel that the social distancing rules should be adhered to.

I know that I will be financially OK, and that my business will survive, but that's not true for a lot of folks.

Just my current feelings....


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Sunil I hear ya.....I guess it is a "we'll see".

Of course none of us want our hospitals over-run, but whose to say the rest of the country will be exactly like NY?

Some countries have had a lot less problems than Italy.....why?....a lot of reasons.

Maybe a lot of states will have a lot less problems than NY?

Models are not always correct.....many people rightfully doubted or scoffed at computer models that predicted, say, where a hurricane would make landfall or who was guaranteed to win a presidential election. It was a world-is-ending projection two weeks ago that there would be as many as 500,000 dead in the United Kingdom and as many as 2.2 million dead in the United States offered up by professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London. That fired up the media’s panic machine. Professor Ferguson has since drastically scaled back his model to fewer than 20,000 deaths in Britain.

All I know is as of this morning Texas with a population very close to 29 million has around 90-100 deaths....w/around 5800 cases.
Of course those figures will go up.....but 100 deaths out of 29 million?

Just for perspective cancer kills around 600,000 people in the US yearly. And heart disease kills another 600,000 in the US every year.

There are between 45,000 - 50,000 suicides in the US yearly.....and a destroyed economy will likely greatly increase that.

I know it's not all about the deaths, it's about the hospitals.

However I think the different medical discoveries/treatments will get this to a manageable state for the hospitals and when that happens I think we need to open the economy back up.

Sunil take a look at this author....he speaks about what you have questioned and his bio is quite impressive: Professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health, as well as professor by courtesy of biomedical data science at Stanford University School of Medicine, professor by courtesy of statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) at Stanford University

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/



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How many have been infected but not felt sickness, so no test.
Are hospitalizations 15% of positive tests, or, of persons reporting sick and testing positive?

Now we're getting some scare stories that it can aerosolize for up to a few hours...wear masks at all times in public (urban environments?).
It is time to re-visit Dr. David Price, if he has a newer video, to see if he was/is right that he can work with a patient in dire straights wearing a simple paper mask
and not get sick (doing everything else, constantly using Purell). As he said, we only need N95 masks when messing with a patient will produce
coughing, gagging, spitting and such.


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Abilene couple remains under City ordered quarantine

Quote
Officers have been monitoring the home for days making sure the couple doesn’t leave their home.

Hanna said the husband and wife recently returned home from New York. The male , in his 40’s, refused to quarantine himself upon his return to Abilene. After having symptoms of the coronavirus, he continued to go on about his daily life......

https://ktxs.com/news/local/abilene-couple-remain-under-city-ordered-quarantine

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