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Originally Posted by Tbar
We are pretty well fixed at the farm. Daughter brought the grandkids out to keep them isolated but not bored. Lots of fish in the cage and game in the fields.


[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]

Originally Posted by Tbar
We are pretty well fixed at the farm. Daughter brought the grandkids out to keep them isolated but not bored. Lots of fish in the cage and game in the fields.


[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]


Nice crappie T..... mine seem to be missing due to bass predation....

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That's the problem. We face a real issue with the virus, but many people see this as an opportunity to seize power over ordinary Americans. How many temporary measures will prove permanent?

Last edited by anthropic; 03/19/20 06:45 PM.

7ac 2015 CNBG RES FHM 2016 TP FLMB 2017 NLMB GSH L 2018 TP & 70 HSB PK 2019 TP RBT 2020 TFS TP 25 HSB 250 F1,L,RBT -206 2021 TFS TP GSH L,-312 2022 GSH TP CR TFS RBT -234, 2023 BG TP TFS NLMB, -160




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Originally Posted by Sunil
From what I'm hearing from friends and co-workers who have family members working in gov't (so not direct info.), the gov't wants to shut things down more than what the status quo is...At this stage, who knows what that means??

Sunil if they declare martial law I think that would be ridiculous. As of today the worst hit countries are Italy at 3,405 deaths and China at 3,245 deaths. The US around 165 deaths. And from what I read cases are declining in China. So if China has 3,245 deaths and we already have 22,000 deaths from the flu this season...what are we doing? I mean lets say we are as bad as China and Italy combined...that's still not even half the US flu deaths so far this flu season.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/


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If I were the leader of our country, I would not want to have to ever say.." I didn't do enough," or "I didn't do all that I could have."

Having said that, I'm not able to really connect the level of 'general-life-disruption' with the 'known' threat of this virus.

I'm not at all diminishing what ItalyBass is saying.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
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Zep you also have to look at what they had to do to stop it also. The death tolls there would still be rising if they didnt take such drastic measures. And yes the flu has killed more but is that a reason not to stop this while we can get ahold of it.


The people who say I can't do it can just sit the @^#% down and watch me. Friends call me Rusto I also subscribe to pond boss mag. http://forums.pondboss.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=504716#Post504716
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I'm going about, doing just about what I always do, and am not sweating it. But, retirement doesn't take or afford a lot of social interaction.

Been working on a rent house and am now finished. Time to get somebody in that thing.

Wife is a Paralegal and works for a big Dallas Law Firm. She is now working from home. Had to buy her a couple of monitors and hook to her laptop. Without daily social interaction, she says her productivity has probably gone up 50%.


It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.

Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.

Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
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Filippo is setting in a tough place right now, I'm hopping some of the medical science will come along to help them out. From what I understand Italy did shut things down early, similar to what we are doing here and they still are having high death rates. If comparing the size of Italy to the size of our states and comparing early shut down we might be looking at 40 to 50 times more deaths. I sure hope not. We are at the lake house and bunkered down. We are about 10 min drive from the farm right now where we can harvest meat and fish if needed. I am not in a panic but I am trying to be smart with all of this.


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TGW, one thing I had read about Italy was that within the past 2-3 years, they had created some kind of agreement with China where a few hundred thousand Chinese were traveling between Northern Italy and China for work.. Silk Road Project or something like that.

Italy was probably subject to massive amounts of infection due to that........maybe .....

Sad all around.


Excerpt from Robert Crais' "The Monkey's Raincoat:"
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Originally Posted by TGW1
"If comparing the size of Italy to the size of our states and comparing early shut down we might be looking at 40 to 50 times more deaths. I sure hope not"

Tracy I am no mathematician, but I cant see how based on population comparison US deaths could be "40 to 50 times more deaths than Italy".

Italy has just over 60 million people and the United States about 327 million people.

Besides Italy having a higher percentage of elderly, don't those population figures show population wise the US is 5-6 times larger than Italy?

So how and why would the US death rates be "40 to 50 times worse" than Italy?

At 5 times worse than Italy (3500 thus far), our death rate would be around 20,000 which is around the typical flu deaths this time of the year.


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ZEP I was not looking at population of Italy but more at the size of the country and comparing it to the size of our states. So my math could be way off. I hope you are right. I was looking at 3,500 deaths in Italy and then multiplying that by 40 to 50 states. Thanks for the math smile


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Zep Offline OP
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Originally Posted by RStringer
Zep you also have to look at what they had to do to stop it also. The death tolls there would still be rising if they didnt take such drastic measures. And yes the flu has killed more but is that a reason not to stop this while we can get ahold of it.

I am not really disagreeing with you RS, but if the flu kills about the same or more than the corona-virus why don't we destroy the economy every year to prevent all those flu deaths?

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).Jan 8, 2020"

US Flu Deaths last flu season: 34,200
Worldwide Corona deaths thus far: 10,600


What am I missing?


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Originally Posted by Sunil
TGW, one thing I had read about Italy was that within the past 2-3 years, they had created some kind of agreement with China where a few hundred thousand Chinese were traveling between Northern Italy and China for work.. Silk Road Project or something like that.

Italy was probably subject to massive amounts of infection due to that........maybe .....

Sad all around.

Sunil, I understood the same with the Chinese travel in Italy. Sad for sure.


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Zep, I think this shut down is mostly about keeping hospitalization down. People will absolutely freek out when the call comes out that all hospital beds are taken for critical care.


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I think what people is missing is this has only began here. The flu has been around for a long time. One problem is nobody seems to really know much about it . I have read where its up to 20 times more contagious than the reg flu. It also has long term effects like 30% loss of lungs capacity. And if everyone would get the flu shot maybe we could get those numbers down as well. My wife didn't believe in them for years. The insurance companys don't want to pay for anything they don't have to. They pay for the flu shot so that right there means something. If it don't help keep there cost down they would not offer to pay for it. Everyone has to chose their own path thou. I want to be around and healthy for my kids and grandkids (on the way). Its kinda like most people don't eat right or get enough activity to maintain a healthy body. Now these are just my opinions.

Last edited by RStringer; 03/20/20 09:20 AM.

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I have talked to three different DR buddies and all three separately said the same thing. This is NOT the flu. This is MUCH worse than the flu. They said numbers are changing rapidly so very fluid. Current thinking is if one person contracts the flu they infect one other. If one person contracts corona they infect 3 ot 5 others. Current CDC estimates are between 160 million and 214 million US residents WILL catch corona. They are HOPING death rate will be much lower than initial estimates - HOPING for 1.4%. Run those numbers... 180 million folks times 1.4% = 2.5 million dead (low # of infected and low kill rate). Oh yeah, there are currently 950,000 hospital beds in the US. Those will fill up quick which = a higher death rate.

I was skeptical at first, but after talking to those guys that changed. I am still hoping maybe this hyped up and the outcome will just be something like the flu. There are currently friends of friends in ICU already in my town. A couple folks on the back end of it and they went through hell and they aren't the sickly kind of people.

Last edited by wbuffetjr; 03/20/20 10:19 AM.

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Originally Posted by TGW1
Zep, I think this shut down is mostly about keeping hospitalization down. People will absolutely freek out when the call comes out that all hospital beds are taken for critical care.

Tracy I agree...and I fully support shutting down most of the social gatherings like sporting events, car races, concert, movie theaters, schools, etc....

Also support strong encouragement for people to wash hands many times a day.

I support asking people to keep a safe distance when possible.....but as far as destroying the economy over something that thus far looks to kill less or even if it is same as flu....I dunno...I just don't think people fully realize the pain and "freak out" we will see with a collapsed economy.

As for as hospital over-load...MOST people that contract corona-virus are not and do not need to be hospitalized.

Many, many people that contract corona-virus never even know they have it....they just think it's the flu.

There seems to be too much "OMG I've got the corona-virus" panic.

If you get it....for most people it's about like the flu....you don't go to the hospital....you stay at home and that's it.

For some just like with the flu it is more dangerous.

I think the hospital over-load factor is partly caused my the media 24/7 panic....so when someone gets it....they panic and run to the hospital.....when in reality most people with corona-virus don't need a hospital.

Why isn't the media balancing their scare tactics with informing the public that if you get it you most likely will NOT NEED to go to a hospital.

We just need some logic and balance....instead of sensationalizing and panic from the media.

This virus has killed 220 people in the US with a population of 327 million people.

In my opinion we need to take it seriously, but not destroy our economy.

I think this lady's story about her coronavirus is typical:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/heal...oPDWwqob44wv-lpYw2R10AqsJK8jwz9J-yLUCvw4


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Originally Posted by wbuffetjr
Current CDC estimates are between 160 million and 214 million US residents WILL catch corona. They are HOPING death rate will be much lower than initial estimates - HOPING for 1.4%. Run those numbers... 180 million folks times 1.4% = 2.5 million dead (low # of infected and low kill rate). Oh yeah, there are currently 950,000 hospital beds in the US. Those will fill up quick which = a higher death rate.

re: 2.5 million US deaths from corona-virus

Then why is China with a population what 5 or 6 times larger than the US and with much less advanced and widespread medical profession NOT seeing those kind of death rates and the virus is in decline there?

China has had around 3400 deaths in a country of well over a billion people....and the virus is on decline in China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/


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This looks promising....French Peer-Reviewed Study: Our Treatment Cured 100% Of Coronavirus Patients

https://www.dailywire.com/news/fren...edium=social&utm_campaign=benshapiro


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Originally Posted by Zep
Originally Posted by wbuffetjr
Current CDC estimates are between 160 million and 214 million US residents WILL catch corona. They are HOPING death rate will be much lower than initial estimates - HOPING for 1.4%. Run those numbers... 180 million folks times 1.4% = 2.5 million dead (low # of infected and low kill rate). Oh yeah, there are currently 950,000 hospital beds in the US. Those will fill up quick which = a higher death rate.

re: 2.5 million US deaths from corona-virus

Then why is China with a population what 5 or 6 times larger than the US and with much less advanced and widespread medical profession seeing those kind of death rates and the virus is in decline there?

China has had around 3400 deaths in a country of well over a billion....and the virus is on decline.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/



One, What information from China would you bet your life on?? They have a very clear motive to paint the rosiest picture they can. Why is Italy, a country with 4% the population of CHY-NAH, approaching half the cases and more deaths??

Two, China doesn't have things like Panama City beach, etc going on.

That's just a couple thoughts...

Listen, Zep, I hope you are right.

Last edited by wbuffetjr; 03/23/20 08:14 AM.

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Unless something's changed, there is no cure for virus'. Bacterial infections yes, viral infections no. Meds are prescribed to control signs and symptoms.


AL

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wbuffetjr...even if the figures from China were ten times worse than they report, it would be about like annual flu deaths in US.

We are 5-6 times more population than Italy and it still would not be anywhere near 2.5 million deaths...it would be around 21,000 or less than annual US flu deaths. Plus Italy has one of the highest elderly populations in Europe.

China may not have Panama Beach, but tens of millions live in very close quarters and many live in squalor.

Again.. it is a very serious situation...yes corona is more contagious than flu....

But with the flu and corona the vast majority do not require hospitalization and do not die from it.

I just think we need to take a lot of precaution, but not shut down the economy.


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Originally Posted by FireIsHot
Unless something's changed, there is no cure for virus'. Bacterial infections yes, viral infections no. Meds are prescribed to control signs and symptoms.

asymptomatic or control of signs/symptoms may not be technically a "cure" but it's sure a hell of an improvement!...lol
https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view


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Mod's note-

Guys very glad at the way each of you have handled this discussion.

No politics - no blaming - except China where it started.

Lots of unknowns , lots of suffering and much heroism by every day people especially in the medical community. Pray for the suffering and those on the front line of this. They are working in extreme squalor with not enough tools and low supplies of necessary protective equipment. Like asking a soldier to go to war with little ammunition.
















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Just as a reference point for myself, I have yet to communicate with anyone who actually knows someone directly who has tested positive for this virus.

But again, I'm at a loss to know what is factual and what is not.


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Originally Posted by Zep
Originally Posted by FireIsHot
Unless something's changed, there is no cure for virus'. Bacterial infections yes, viral infections no. Meds are prescribed to control signs and symptoms.

asymptomatic or control of signs/symptoms may not be technically a "cure" but it's sure a hell of an improvement!...lol
https://drive.google.com/file/d/186Bel9RqfsmEx55FDum4xY_IlWSHnGbj/view

Mark, I agree with you 100%. Being asymptomatic doesn't make it go away though. I may be wrong, but you can still infect others without having personal S&S. The virus still runs it's course.

Guys, please correct me if I'm wrong. Scientific data please.

Last edited by FireIsHot; 03/20/20 11:26 AM.

AL

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