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Joined: Oct 2015
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OP
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,429 Likes: 20 |
I have not seen much improvement in several years or more. The "future radar" is almost useless. Sometimes an 80% chance of rain is given two days ahead, and it drops to 10% the next day.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 904 Likes: 1
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 904 Likes: 1 |
I was just talking to a buddy about this over the weekend....I feel like we're just about as likely to pull off an accurate 24 hour prediction by looking at a 1980 edition of the Farmer's Almanac or a simple wild a$$ guess as watching any of the modern weather forecasts.
Dale "When tempted to fight fire with fire, remember that the Fire Department usually uses water." - anonymous
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 3,959 Likes: 188
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Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 3,959 Likes: 188 |
Weather forecasting is the only trade that is not held accountable.....
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Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 425
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Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 425 |
Weather forecasting is the only trade that is not held accountable..... And being a politician. Sorry had to go there!
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Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,541 Likes: 282
Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
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Moderator Hall of Fame 2014 Lunker
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 21,541 Likes: 282 |
Weather info is getting much better. Just because we know more does not mean we understand or know what to do with the info and surely forecasts are lacking. The further out they go the less accurate they are. Much over a few hours and the reliability greatly decreases.
Last edited by ewest; 09/26/16 01:23 PM.
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 5,730 Likes: 289
Lunker
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Lunker
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 5,730 Likes: 289 |
The accuracy of weather forecasts also depends on location. They are pretty good in my area. Not much topography to goof things up.
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Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,429 Likes: 20
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OP
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 2,429 Likes: 20 |
Lots of topography in my area, but only smaller hills ranging from 300 up to 1200 feet or so above the valleys. Doesn't seem high enough to influence thunderstorms.
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,668 Likes: 57
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,668 Likes: 57 |
It was required to get my pilot license I use five different resources on weather before my flight plan. When getting your pilot license it seemed to me, most of it was about weather and how to read weather maps and weather reports and after getting the license I can see why it was required. Don't trust others for weather it was trust yourself ! But the one resource I liked was to go outside and look at the weather I bet highflyer can tell of some weather stories. Tracy
Do not judge me by the politicians in my City, State or Federal Government.
Tracy
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Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,332 Likes: 309
Moderator
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Moderator
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 5,332 Likes: 309 |
The cap over DFW seems to kill most of rain that comes in from the west. We rarely count on that rain to make it here.
AL
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Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 44
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Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 44 |
I would have to agree with RAH, it depends on location. As a part time farmer in Indiana I am sometimes amazed at how well the NWS does predicting rain and temp. I do realize that if there is a chance of rain in my area I personally may not get it on my farm but typically somewhere close by does. It seems to me that I have seen a steady improvement over the last several years.
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 6,088 Likes: 96
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Joined: Oct 2013
Posts: 6,088 Likes: 96 |
That is my opinion too Gary. I am even surprised at myself on how much I depend on the weather forecast. I have more than once went on the motorcycle to lunch in town because the higher probability of rain shown on the forecast was not to show up till 2 pm. Course I have gotten wet more than once too! But in general, I think the accuracy is far improved over when I was a kid (and that has been more than just a few years ago).
John
I subscribe to Pond Boss Magazine
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 619 Likes: 73
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 619 Likes: 73 |
I installed a small weather station at our property, just to track our very local weather pattern, as well as compare it to the local and regional forecast. It is amazing how much the weather at our property can vary from what's happening even 5 miles away.
"Politics": derived from 'poly' meaning many, and 'tics' meaning 'blood sucking parasites'.
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 179
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 179 |
Well at least we can accurately predict the weather within a degree or two 50 or 100 years from now!! BM61
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 47
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Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 47 |
Like a lot of people, I use the weather forcast to figure out my next move out at the farm. I use Weather.com a lot, but they seem to overcall the rain forcast often. I frequently recheck the site for updates on the forecasted rain, and more often than not, the rain event shrinks or goes away altogether. My theory is that they exaggerate the forecast, knowing that it will be checked again and again, resulting in accelerated rate of "hits" on their site. They of course are selling ad space at a rate determined on the volume of 'hits".
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,668 Likes: 57
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Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,668 Likes: 57 |
Well at least we can accurately predict the weather within a degree or two 50 or 100 years from now!! BM61 Ha, So True. I would say follow the money. Millions are being spent on solar and provides few jobs. Solar is a high profit business and being pushed hard in places like DC. It is suggested as a new startup business for those that are looking for a business start up. I started a new wildlife food plot this week and planted winter forage wheat along with some Elbon Rye grain seeds. Planted the day before yesterday with an 80% chance of rain. So I rushed the job and no rain showed up. The forecast for this week is high pressure, bluebird days for the rest of the week. Oh well, rain has to show up sometime soon, it's that time of the year. Tracy
Do not judge me by the politicians in my City, State or Federal Government.
Tracy
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 16,097 Likes: 287
Moderator Lunker
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Moderator Lunker
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 16,097 Likes: 287 |
4 neighbors; all within 1.5 miles and 1 in about 1/8 miles. Our rain gauges seldom agree.
It's not about the fish. It's about the pond. Take care of the pond and the fish will be fine. PB subscriber since before it was in color.
Without a sense of urgency, Nothing ever gets done.
Boy, if I say "sic em", you'd better look for something to bite. Sam Shelley Rancher and Farmer Muleshoe Texas 1892-1985 RIP
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 5,730 Likes: 289
Lunker
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Lunker
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 5,730 Likes: 289 |
Well at least we can accurately predict the weather within a degree or two 50 or 100 years from now!! BM61 I'll bet we can predict the average temp this winter more accurately than the temp on Christmas day too. This is how averages work. Weather and climate prediction are not the same animal.
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